09/22/2018 – Stanford vs Oregon – Football Preview

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Stanford vs Oregon

8:00 PM – September 22, 2018

Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR

LINE:

CURRENT:

ORE +2.5

TOTAL:

56.5

OPENING:

ORE -2.5

TOTAL:

55

PAT’S THOUGHTS:

Max’s Take:

This feels like groundhog day. Stanford is about to play Oregon. The match up is built up to be a war between the PAC-12’s biggest hitters. The spread is low, the experts are split. Then, on gameday, we are reminded that Oregon isn’t who they used to be as Stanford hands them a schoolyard beating.

This match up is simple for me. I’m going to use the same formula I used for a big payday last week in the Bama/Ole Miss game, the one that left me feeling like a guru after Duke beat up on Paddy Fitzgerald as an underdog, and the one that at least let me get emotionally ready for what happened to the Seminoles last weekend. Simply ask “what happened last time and what has changed?”
 Stanford is 4-2 in the last 6 and won 49-7 last year. Bryce Love ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Besides Royce Freeman’s 143 yards, Stanford completely shutdown the Duck’s offense. However, Justin Herbert (QB 1) missed the game.
This time, the Stanford is a two point favorite. So, ask yourself, have there been any changes since last year to either team to make you believe that Stanford will win by 42 less points than they did last October? Let’s look.
Personnel-wise Oregon has their starting QB back. Herbert was 6-1 last year. This year he’s 46/81 for 840 yds with 12 tds to 4 interceptions. So we should see a pretty different offense from Oregon than when they only attempted 13 passes last year. However, Royce Freeman also plays in the NFL now so the run support won’t be there. That probably explains why Oregon finished last year ranked 32nd in S&P offense and are currently only 7 spots higher at number 25. Also, Stanford finished last year ranked 59th in defensive S&P but currently sit at number four for this year which means Oregon will have a lot of trouble finding points.
On the other side of the ball, Bryce Love is still putting up big numbers for Stanford. Yet they have regressed to 93rd in overall S&P offense after finishing last year ranked 29th. This should be good news for an Oregon squad currently ranked 63rd in defense. It is worth noting that Oregon currently boasts a top 10 run defense (un-adjusted). Although one should keep in mind that they haven’t played anyone.
Ultimately, I may stay away from this one. The big swing in Stanford’s rankings on both offense and defense make me a little nervous. But, if you find yourself tempted to bet Oregon, then make sure you have a good answer to the question of what changed enough to justify the 45 point gap between last year’s result and this year’s spread.

Schedule:

Stanford

DATE

OPPONENT

SCORE

LINE

TOTAL

August 31, 2018

vs San Diego State

W 31-10

W -14

U 49.5

September 8, 2018

vs USC

W 17-3

W -4.5

U 54.5

September 15, 2018

vs UC Davis

W 30-10

L -31

U 66.5

September 22, 2018

@ Oregon

September 29, 2018

@ Notre Dame

October 6, 2018

vs Utah

October 18, 2018

@ Arizona State

October 27, 2018

vs Washington St

November 3, 2018

@ Washington

November 10, 2018

vs Oregon State

November 17, 2018

@ Cal

November 24, 2018

@ UCLA

Oregon

DATE

OPPONENT

SCORE

LINE

TOTAL

September 1, 2018

vs Bowling Green

W 58-24

L -34.5

O 69.5

September 8, 2018

vs Portland State

W 62-14

L -50

U 81

September 15, 2018

vs San Jose State

W 35-22

L -42.5

U 70.5

September 22, 2018

vs Stanford

September 29, 2018

@ Cal

October 13, 2018

vs Washington

October 20, 2018

@ Washington St

October 27, 2018

@ Arizona

November 3, 2018

vs UCLA

November 10, 2018

@ Utah

November 17, 2018

vs Arizona State

November 23, 2018

@ Oregon State

INJURY REPORT:

Stanford

DATE

POSITION

PLAYER

INJURY

STATUS

September 19, 2018

LB

Casey Toohill

Arm

Out

September 16, 2018

RB

Bryce Love

Knee

Probable

September 16, 2018

WR

Connor Wedington

Undisclosed

Questionable

September 16, 2018

LB

Curtis Robinson

Undisclosed

Questionable

September 12, 2018

OL

Foster Sarell

Leg

Out

Oregon

DATE

POSITION

PLAYER

INJURY

STATUS

September 16, 2018

K

Adam Stack

Leg

Probable

September 16, 2018

QB

Braxton Burmeister

Knee

Out

September 16, 2018

WR

Brenden Schooler

Concussion

Questionable

September 18, 2018

OL

Penei Sewell

Ankle

Probable

September 13, 2018

WR

Jalen Hall

Dismissed

September 4, 2018

Cam McCormick

Foot

Out for Season

September 18, 2018

OL

Dallas Warmack

Ankle

Probable

September 18, 2018

S

Mattrell McGraw

Leg

Probable

Statistics:

Stanford

OFFENSE:

SEASON

RANK

DEFENSE:

SEASON

RANK

Total Yards

358.3

103

Total Yards

301

23

Passing Yards

243

63

Passing Yards

196.3

53

Rushing Yards

115.3

113

Rushing Yards

104.7

23

Points

26

97

Points

7.7

1

Turnovers

1

6

Turnovers

Oregon

OFFENSE:

Season

Rank

DEFENSE:

Season

Rank

Total Yards

503

24

Total Yards

309.3

30

Passing Yards

289

37

Passing Yards

226

78

Rushing Yards

214

38

Rushing Yards

83.3

10

Points

51.7

8

Points

20

43

Turnovers

3

65

Turnovers

5

33


GAME ARTICLES:

Stanford preview: Game-by-game predictions

2018: The Year of the Stanford Offense

College football rankings: SN’s preseason Top 25 for 2018

2018 College Fantasy Football Draft Results, Rankings

Stanford vs. Oregon Betting Preview: Undefeated Pac-12 Rivals Collide In Eugene

Oregon ESPN

Oregon Homepage

Oregon 247 Forum

Ducks Attack Forum

Addicted to Quack

Bleacher Report Oregon

Statesman Journal Ducks

Oregon Live Ducks

Stanford Homepage

Stanford Forum

Stanford Scout Forum

Rule of Tree

Stanford Daily

Bleacher Report Stanford

Mercury News Stanford