09/22/2018 – Boston College vs Purdue – Football Preview

This is an interesting game to me. On one side you have Boston College, a team I feel is grossly underrated that has shown an affinity for putting up points and beating up on teams. On the other you have the hang-around guys of Purdue. They’re 0-3 but they’ve lost those three games by a combined 8 points. Six and a half points seems reasonable if not a little high for this ACC/B1G showdown so I wanted to take a closer look.

Rebuttal: Boston College is much better than the teams that Purdue has seen so far. The three teams that have beaten the Boilermakers are 54th, 87th, and 39th in F+. Boston College is 21st. Therefore, the three close games they’ve played don’t really play a factor for me. If both teams ranked above Purdue’s 59th fell just 2.5 points short of covering this spread, it stands to reason that Boston College should cross that threshold.

Argument 2: Purdue’s stout defense will give Boston College trouble. After all, they’ve clamped down on EMU’s 26th ranked (S&P) offense and Missouri’s 10th ranked offense. Surely they can have a similar performance against BC’s 17th ranked offense.

Rebuttal: Top-line numbers don’t tell the whole story here. Their first three opponents were very one dimensional. In fact, those three teams average 89th in the nation in rushing offense. Boston College, on the other hand, boasts the country’s 6th best rushing attack behind AJ Dillon, the monster of a true sophomore averaging 144 yards per game. Plot twist, they can also throw. QB Anthony Brown has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 626 yards and has nine touchdowns to zero interceptions. I love BC to wear down this rush defense, make them stack the box and then throw it over the top.

Argument 3: Boston College hasn’t been tested against an offense like Purdue’s. Purdue has the nation’s 25th best rushing attack and started to find some success through the air last week. They should be able to put up points and keep this game within a touchdown.