09/15/2018 – Hawaii vs Army – Football Preview

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Hawaii vs Army

12:00 PM – September 15, 2018

Michie Stadium, West Point, NY

LINE:

CURRENT:

ARMY -6.5

TOTAL:

62

OPENING:

ARMY -4.5

TOTAL:

63

PAT’S THOUGHTS:

Love Army in this spot.  This game will be played at 6am Hawaii time.  I’m not sure if you have seen college kids worth a damn at 6am, but I certainly haven’t.  Hawaii has been awesome this year, but Rice figured them out a bit last week.  Rice, not exactly world beaters, traveled to the other side of the globe and had it to a 7 point game with 2 minutes to go.  They didn’t recover the onside kick, and Hawaii busted a long run to make the score look much more lopsided than it was.  I think three games of tape on the run and shoot will also help a very good Army defense.  Army also has the advantage of seeing how Navy got annihilated in the first half, and will be prepared for this one.  Add in the fact that there may be rain, and that only helps Army’s case.
Let’s not forget too that Army is no slouch.  They won 10 games last year.  They lost to a good Duke team which means they were tested.  They beat the doors of a Liberty team that beat the doors off ODU.  Vs Liberty they had 449 yards rushing and held the ball for almost 42 minutes.
Finally, I love the reverse line movement in this one. The line went from -5 to -6.5 despite only 31% of the public on Army.  Army will win this comfortably by pulling away in the 4th.
Max’s Take:
I don’t have a great read on this one. Army is a strong team, but not great. Hawaii is way better than they’ve been in the past but nothing special. Just looking at overall ratings, Army has them by about 30 spots in F+. Combine that with the fact that the public seems to be hammering Hawaii (68% of the tickets as I write this) and I think Army must be a good play. At first look, I can’t figure out why. Hawaii is trending up having gone 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS.Army hasn’t looked great, getting smacked around by Duke and beating a nobody team last week. So, I’m going to ignore the public trend and look at this game in a vacuum. If that costs me, then hopefully you were smart enough to heed its warning.
Hawaii may be 123rd in F+ and 106th in S&P Margin. However, they’re the 15th rated offense and can score points with their air raid offense. I don’t think Army’s 110th ranked defense is going to be of much help here. On the other side of the ball, Army has the 51st ranked offense and their running attack should be able to punish Hawaii’s dilapidated defense. So, it looks like we have a shootout in the making. Football logic tells me to go with the high-flying passing team. They’ll score more quickly and be able to catch up if they get behind. That’s something Army’s offense isn’t built for. I like the Rainbow Warriors to win a shootout in th…. NOT SO FAST SWEETHEART!
Thanks to a gramatical error on our site, I thought this game was happening in paradise. But it isn’t. This game is happening in West Point, NY. Well, I recently started waking up at 5:30 am and going to the gym. It sucks and it’s hard. There is absolutely no way I could have done it college when I was still a growing boy. Let me ask you this: think back to the best shape you’ve ever been in. Then ask how well you could’ve played a full game of D1 college football against a team that runs down your throat more than anyone in the country at 5:30 in the morning. Is the answer, not great? Well that is what Hawaii is going to be asked to do. An already porous defense is going to have to play hard-nosed, smashmouth football after flying for 12 or so hours and waking up at around 3:00 a.m. their time for food an warm ups.
This is a stay away for me. Stats and football logic tell me Hawaii, public bets and knowing that college aged guys don’t perform well that early in the morning tell me Army. I’ll leave this one up to you, but if you forced me to choose, I’d tell you to take the Black Knights by a touchdown.

Schedule:

Hawaii

DATE

OPPONENT

SCORE

LINE

TOTAL

August 25, 2018

@ Colorado State

W 43-34

W 17

O 58

September 1, 2018

vs Navy

W 59-41

W 13.5

O 61

September 8, 2018

vs Rice

W 43-29

L -17

O 70

September 15, 2018

@ Army

September 22, 2018

vs Duquesne

September 29, 2018

@ San Jose State

October 6, 2018

vs Wyoming

October 13, 2018

@ BYU

October 20, 2018

vs Nevada

October 27, 2018

@ Fresno State

November 3, 2018

vs Utah State

November 17, 2018

vs UNLV

November 24, 2018

@ San Diego State

Army

DATE

OPPONENT

SCORE

LINE

TOTAL

August 31, 2018

@ Duke

L 14-34

L 14

O 46.5

September 8, 2018

vs Liberty

W 38-14

W -7.5

U 57

September 15, 2018

vs Hawai’i

September 22, 2018

@ Oklahoma

September 29, 2018

@ Buffalo

October 13, 2018

@ San Jose State

October 20, 2018

vs Miami (OH)

October 27, 2018

@ E Michigan

November 3, 2018

vs Air Force

November 10, 2018

vs Lafayette

November 17, 2018

vs Colgate

December 8, 2018

vs Navy

INJURY REPORT:

Hawaii

DATE

POSITION

PLAYER

INJURY

STATUS

Army

DATE

POSITION

PLAYER

INJURY

STATUS

August 8, 2018

DL

Amadeo West

Achilles

Out

Statistics:

Hawaii

OFFENSE:

SEASON

RANK

DEFENSE:

SEASON

RANK

Total Yards

541.3

23

Total Yards

503.3

118

Passing Yards

391

4

Passing Yards

307

112

Rushing Yards

150.3

89

Rushing Yards

196.3

100

Points

48.3

15

Points

34.7

108

Turnovers

2

33

Turnovers

3

56

Army

OFFENSE:

Season

Rank

DEFENSE:

Season

Rank

Total Yards

437.5

61

Total Yards

399

87

Passing Yards

129

119

Passing Yards

252

93

Rushing Yards

308.5

9

Rushing Yards

147

69

Points

26

90

Points

24

72

Turnovers

Turnovers

4

32


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