2017 Fishy Five Week 1

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I lived a decade if I lived a day in college.  I studied hard, and played hard and partied harder.

 

I discovered the best pickup move early in my college career.  At parties, I would introduce myself to a group of girls, and explain to them that I had a unique gift of being able to guess how old they were by feeling their boobs.

 

Most girls would laugh at me for the idiot I was (and probably still am).  However, my friends and I would try to convince them that I had this great gift.  You would be shocked at how many girls would actually take me up on the challenge after they had pre-gamed on a bottle of Boone’s Farm…

 

So more times than you could imagine I would get to cop a feel on a girl, and then I would guess her age.  Of course, her age had to be between 18-22 because she was at a college party, and it was pretty easy narrow it down.  And if I was wrong, who cares?  I was still a winner.  Great memories…

 

The Fishy Five is a lot like that. Don’t be fooled into thinking we have a great gift.  We are here to have fun, share some stories, and try to pick some winners.  And if we are wrong, we are still going to have a great time.

 

The fact is, there is no secret to sports betting.  Our goal is to try to tilt the scales a few percentage points in our favor.  We do that by siding with Vegas since those bastards always win.  We do that by looking for situations where teams may come out hot or may come out flat.  And we do that by not being reckless with our bankroll.

 

I really appreciate you following the Fishy Five, and I can’t tell you how much I enjoy the conversations many of us have every week on games.

 

Here’s to a great season of picking stinky dogs and hopefully feeling some boobies.

 

Before the picks though – I need to make another plug to move some merchandise.

 

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Week 1 Picks:

 

NM State +22.5 @ Arizona State

 

Let’s not kid ourselves – NM State is the suck.  They win like 2 games a year.  However, there are some sneaky things in play here.

 

They have a good QB and potentially stud RB.  They return most of their OL.  They don’t really think about playing defense, but they do get 9 starters aNew Shirts.jpgck on that side of the ball.

 

And they play Arizona State who I think is a team in big trouble this year.  I love the Sparkies, and wear my Herb Sendek shirt as often as I can even though it has a huge hole in the arm pit.  This is a team with deep rooted problems that will be exposed as the season plays out…

 

Of course, they will be on a high Thursday because it is Pat Tillman night and we all respect the hell out of that man.  But that won’t even save them from a sinister back door cover since ASU plays no pass defense.

 

There is some great reverse line movement in this game, and I love that we are still getting more than 3 TDs.

 

Navy -9.5 @ Florida Atlantic

 

I don’t admire a lot of men, but I do admire Lane Kiffin.  They guy landed several high profile gigs and left each one of them a dumpster fire.  He married way up, even though he managed to mess that up too.  And he put out the greatest hype video in the history of college football this summer.  If you missed it – youtube it real quick.  I will wait.

 

His FAU team is getting a lot of love for hiring Lane and Art Briles’ kid.  So much love that the line opened at 14.5 and has been bet down to 9.5.

 

That is wayyyyy too much movement.  The pub has fallen in love with the story, and not with reality.

 

FAU has major defensive liabilities – especially on their front 7.  That is not what you want to happen when playing Navy.

 

Here is how this will play out.  FAU will try to run and gun.  There will be a lot of quick possessions and 3 and outs.  Navy will then hold the ball for 10 minutes going for it on 4th and 1 like seventeen times.  Eventually, this lousy FAU defense will be gassed, and Navy will gouge them with big play after big play.  That spells blowout city.

 

But this isn’t just about FAU – it’s also about Navy.  They just win.  They are 64% ATS the last four years.  They win 9 or 10 every year.  They are returning 8 starters on D, including ¾ of their secondary.  You know they will be disciplined and prepared for whatever FAU throws at them.

 

I love Navy here in a laugher…

 

Eastern Michigan -14 vs Charlotte

 

Fun fact 1 – I built Charlotte’s football stadium a few years ago.  Fun fact 2 – Charlotte sucks at football.

 

Last year, EMU beat Charlotte 37-19 in the house that Hags built.

 

This year, EMU is at home and returns just about the entire team.  Charlotte will be breaking in a new QB and lost their stud DT.  Charlotte was atrocious on D last year and should be worse this year.

 

EMU will score early and often.  They win this one comfortably.

 

Troy +10.5 @ Boise

 

Who in their right mind bets against Boise on the blue turf?  Those of us that love fishy lines do.

 

I love Troy this season.  They are coming off a 10 win season, and have all key components to that team coming back.  They are especially good on offense.  Stud QB returning for his senior year.  Quality recievers and RBs.  OL that was incredible last year.

 

On D they only gave up 22 points a game last year, and should be just as good this year.  This is a quality team.

 

Boise on the other hand also had a 10 win season. They return a quality QB, but lost their top WR and RB this offseason.  They also are suspect on the OL.  On D their front will be solid, but they replace all starters at LB and the secondary was not very good last year.  They also start freshman at the kicking positions, which could spell trouble.

 

At the end of the day you don’t get value betting teams like Boise.  They have been public for a while.  They went 4-9 last year ATS.  They are 2-10 ATS their last two seasons as home faves – which takes a little shine off the smurf turf.

 

There is some great reverse line movement on Troy, and we are still on the right side of a key number.  Love Troy here.

 

UF +5 vs Michigan

 

Gulp.

 

I guess I had to pick a game that you guys will actually watch.

 

Here are my thoughts:

 

Michigan is obviously very good.  They are well-coached and always get top talent (except my buddy Greg).  However, they are replacing EVERYONE except the QB.  They literally only have one starter returning on defense.

 

And don’t forget that they shit their pants down the stretch last year losing three of their final four games.  They had big time trouble with Florida State’s speed in the bowl game, and you have to worry if the same thing will play out vs another Florida team.

 

Florida has questions without a doubt.  They lost a lot of talent on D – especially in the secondary.  That D carried them the past two years to SEC – East titles.

 

Here is my angle though:  Florida has won a lot of games the past two years while being completely inept on offense.  There is optimism that the offense will improve this season.  Maybe it will, maybe it won’t.  But I love taking my chances on the unknown with a coach who proves he can win ugly – especially when that coach is cocky enough boast how they are going to win in his pregame interviews.

 

We are catching a lot of points here in what will probably be a low scoring affair between two defensively minded teams.  It wouldn’t surprise me one bit when Florida wins this SU.

 

There you go.  That should be a strong start to the season.  Don’t forget to tip your waiter and pick up a shirt or three.

 

Pat

 

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