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Fishy Five 2015 Picks

2015 Fishy Five Picks

Week 1

When I was a child I had a dream.  This dream was vivid.  The dream was glorious.  It was about a young girl named Destiny.  At the end of it, I had to change my underbritches.  What a wonderful memory.

This year – I vow to be a smart bettor.  I vow to stay away from road faves.  I will be weary of double digit faves, and I will love the home dogs.  I will stay away from Thursday night unless Munchie is playing.  I will not pick my own team or UNC…

Anyway, here it is – the very first Fishy 5 of the season:

Minnesota +14.5 v TCU — If it smells like fish, its delish.  Why in hell is Minny only a 14.5 dog?  Doesn’t make a damn bit of sense.  TCU is all world right?  They should have been in the national championship game last year right?  The media has been all over TCU’s nuts all summer.  Now they have to go on the road with a D that lost a lot of talent to play a Jerry Kill team that is experienced and well coached.  TCU will win, but it will be a 10 point game.  This line just doesn’t make a damn bit of sense…

UVA +19.5 @ UCLA — Love dem stinky ass dogs.  These two squared off last year, and UVA lost 20-28, easily covering as 20 point dogs. And that is when UCLA was ranked #7 with a future NFL QB.  Now they are breaking in a new starter.  UVA plays up or down to their opponent, easily covering the 4 times they played a ranked team last year (ULCA, Louisville, BYU and FSU).  Again, I think they lose by 10, but make it interesting and they cover.

Louisville +10.5 v Auburn — Everyone and their sister has been all over Auburn’s nut sack all summer.  They are a national champion contender.  Gus will score a gazillion points.  They like to have unprotected sex in public places.  Whenever that happens, there is a lot of value on the other team.  And the other team in the case is very familiar with Auburn as Petrino coached on the Plains.  Give me a grade A coach (and asswipe), a very good D and 10.5 points every time when playing a hyped team that is breaking in a new QB and wasn’t interested in playing D last year….

ASU +3 vs Tex A&M — ASU returns 16 starters on a team that won 10 games in back to back seasons.  A&M is slowly getting worse – they went from 11 wins to 9 wins to 8 last year.  A&M has QB issues   Give me the puntos here all day long.  I expect for ASU to play with a chip on their shoulder vs the vaunted SEC West…

Kentucky -15 v ULL — I like what Stoops is doing at Kentucky.  The talent level has been upgraded big time.  While they still get pummeled in conference, they do play well out of conference. They covered easily in their 4 OOC games last year including blowouts of their 3 inferior opponents (Ohio, UT Martin and ULM).  This will also be there first game after a big stadium renovation, meaning the crowd and team should be into it.  ULL isn’t a bad mid-major – they’ve won 9 in the last 4 years straight.  However, they lost 7 from last year’s D and have a new coordinator.  They also are breaking in a new QB. I just see a major talent gap in this one and will easily swallow the small spread.

Week 2

F5 is a solid 3-2 after week 1.  I would have been 5-0, except that the Sparkies quit on me in the 4th quarter and Kentucky football is the equivalent of spoiled dog shit.

Lots of great pups this week.  Some are so stinky they will make Cuz blush.  Here is what we got:

Colorado State +6 vs. Minnesota — The college game is an emotional game.  With their beer bongs and prescription drugs and undie runs, you can see why they are so emotional.  Last week Minnesota had a game vs TCU they were looking forward to for months.  They gave it their all and played a physical TCU team tough. But they did have a huge problem moving the ball on offense and have serious OL issues.  And now they are spent.  The hangover will be exacerbated (biggest word ever used in the F5) by having to play at altitude.  And let’s not forget that CSU isn’t a pushover.  They won the Mountain West last year at 10-3.  They return 15 starters off that team.  McElwain built a winner, and even though he is gone a lot of talent remains.  They beat the snot out of a cupcake in week 1, and will be primed for this one.  I think they win SU in a close game.  This is my Play of the Week.

MSU -4 v Oregon — My first thought was – holy crap balls – you are going to give me the Ducks and puntos?  I LOVE PUNTOS.  Been then I sat back and realized – its a trap.  Every spongebob capper out there is going to be on Oregon getting points and thinking they are sharp.  The books are begging for it.  They crave it.  Here is what I know.  Oregon’s D ain’t very good. They struggled big time in week 1.  Also, they are breaking in a new QB.  MSU on the other hand has all key components back from a team that went 11-2 last year including beating Baylor in their bowl game.  They also played Oregon tough for 3 quarters before fading last year.  This will be a big time emotional game for MSU.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder (see what I did there?)…  MSU wins by 10.

Pittsburgh +7 @ New England — The entire off season has been a circus for NE that was focused on Brady’s balls.  And distractions are bad for football.  NE lost Revis, Wilfork and Vereen.  Also, some of the focus will probably be that Pitt’s RB is out, but so is NE’s.  7 points is way too many in a game of two competent teams.  NE probably wins, but it will be close.

STL +4.5 v Seattle —  I love me some stinky home dogs.  Love em.  STL has beat Seattle in 2 of their last 3 at home and covered in all 3.  STL also now actually has a QB and big additions to a very good DL (Fairley) an a solid LB corps (Ayers).  Seattle on the other hand is still without their best defensive player in Chancellor.  I expect a slow, grind it out sorta game which makes 4.5 a lot of puntos.  And I love puntos.

Oakland +3 vs Cincy — I’m big on Oakland this year.  They are just the type of ugly team that can win you a lot of money.  They got Crabtree and Cooper as WRs – which is a very solid pair for a very decent Derek Carr.  They also have a stud in Khalil Mack on D.  Also, the line is telling you a hell of a lot here. Why isn’t Cincy a bigger fave?  Don’t they make the playoffs about every year (even though they always lose in round 1)?  Oakland wins this one SU.

FISH FISH FISH Line of the Week:

Clemson -17 vs App State — This is so WTF it hurts.  Only 17?  If I had bigger stones, I’d take App State.  However, I have small nuggets so I’ll just stay away….

Week 3

The leaves are changing and girls are putting their bikinis away.  It is sweater-meat season, and that is when the Fishy Five performs the best…

Last week was a blah 2-2-1.  The season total is 5-4-1.  Here are this weeks leans:

Auburn +7.5 @ LSU — This is super duper yummy.  It’s like a corn dog dipped in chocolate.  LSU beat up a poor Miss State team. Everyone is high on them and they are good.  However, they still have a QB with only 1 career start under his belt and will be playing in his first big game in college.  On the flip side, everyone is shitting on Auburn. They dropped a zillion places in the polls.  They would have suffered the worst defeat in NCAA football history if it wasn’t for a phantom penalty and a shanked punt.  But they still have a genius as a coach.  They still have all the talent that led them to a pre-season top 5 ranking.  And now they have the motivation of playing after being embarrassed.  They will come out hot and win this one SU…

NC State -18.5 @ ODU — ODU was beating State at half last year 21-18.  They ended up losing by 12 though because they couldn’t play a lick of D.  New year, different team for ODU.  They lost their 4 year starter at QB who is now an NFL backup.  They have turned into a run-first team and struggled to put away Norfolk State last week.  They lost a starting DT and S in that game to ACL injuries.  31 of the 48 who played in that game were freshman or sophomores.  Now they play a Wolfpack team that remembers the scare that ODU put into them.  The pack leads the nation in time of possession and is playing very good football.  They shut out a EKU team last weekend that is supposed to finish 2nd in their conference behind Jax State.  And now they get their #1 tailback back after a 2 game suspension.  The RB is the leading returning back by yardage in the ACC and a 1st team All-ACC preseason pick.  The pack will control the ball and dominate this one from start to finish.  Expect another 30+ point win.

Northwestern +3.5 @ Duke — Wrong team is favored here.  This isn’t the Duke team from the past few years.  Their QB graduated, as did their top WR (who was all-conference).  They are very weak on both lines. Their biggest concern preseason was DL.  Northwestern is legit. They punked Stanford in week 1.  It isn’t often you see at team out-physical Stanford, but it happened. They have only allowed 6 points on the season and are bragging on twitter that they will shut Duke out.  They are a terrible match-up for a young Duke squad that isn’t battle tested yet.  NW by 10.

William and Mary +23.5 @ UVA — Exsqueeze me?  Baking Powder?  BIll and Mary?  Are you serious?  It’s about emotion.  UVA got their asses handed to them by UCLA (but covered) and then lost a heart-wrenching game vs ND (but covered).  If there ever was a let down spot, it is when Bill and Mary come to town.  But B&M has a few things going for them.  They have a 35-year head coach leading them who beat UVA a few years ago SU.  They have a LB on the Butkus watch list.  They have the best OL in their conference.  UVA will win, but will sleep-walk through this one leading to a W&M cover.

Houston +3 @ Cam Newtons — Not impressed with Carolina.  I watched their entire game vs Jax.  They are really bad on O.  Cam actually had a nice game, but he has no receivers.  Their best receiver is Jericho Cotchery.  JCo is tits, but he is old.  Like he went to college with me old. Also, Kuechly got his bell rung and may be out with a concussion.  I was very impressed by Houston.  They were getting their teeth kicked in, but fought back to with a TD.  I love the heart and the fight.  Bill O’Brian can coach for sure. Give me the puntos here cause I love the puntos.

Week 4

A very average 3-2 last week takes the season total to 8-6-1.

Here is what we like this week:

GT -9.5 @ Duke — This is so square it hurts in my plums.  I hate big road favorites.  Hate their guts and livers.  But GT had covered in their last 9 before crapping their pants last week in ND.  This is a great buy-low spot for GT, while Duke is way down as I discussed last week.  Their young DL will have big trouble with GT’s option.  Look for GT to bounce back and win by at least 3 TDs.

Arkansas +7.5 vs A&M — Say what you want, but old Brett Bielema has fight in him.  After getting punked by Kliff Kingsbury both on the field and on twitter, he is going to have his team ready and pissed to play an overrated A&M team.  A&M had a nice win in week 1, but let’s be honest, their opponent pissed themselves.  Take out Jonny Football and A&M is an average B12 team.  No way can they compete with a SEC West Powerhouse.  Gimme more than at TD and a juicy home doggie.

Auburn -2.5 vs Miss State  — Sean White is the truth.  Sean White is the answer.  Sean White can’t be nearly as bad as that other scrub who will be picking splinters out of his ass.  I expect Auburn to bounce back big this week as JJ took all the life out of that team.  And let’s not forget that Miss State is very pedestrian.  Looking for a big win here to right the Gus Bus…

Philly +1 @ Jets — Philly is as low as you can get.  The Jets are as high as you can get.  And the Jets are coming off a short week.  You’ll never find more value than in a spot like this.  I’m scared, but I predict a Philly win 6-4.

Bears +16 @ Seattle — There is a phrase called ‘Addition by Subtraction’.  This applies this week.  For example – tell me the name of a QB who has never won a playoff game in high school, college or the pros?   The answer: Jay ‘I can’t handle sugar’ Cutler.  Now you get Jimmy MF’n Clauson to lead a hungry Bears team.  And 16 is a ton of points.  And its a ton vs a team that has trouble scoring.  I expect Chicago to play ball control in an attempt to keep this game low-scoring.  Two Forte TDs keeps this respectable.

Week 5

You have to take pride in what you do every single week.  You cannot mail it in one week and expect to be a winner.  That happened last week, and I paid dearly for it…

Last week the F5 finished at a very uninspired 2-3.  That brings our season total to 10-9-1.  Very, very average.  In fact, with the juice it would be breaking even.  Pathetic….

Here are this weeks leans.  Love the card this week:

K State +8.5 @ Ok State — Ok State is coming off a huge game for them vs Texas.  Texas may not be Texas anymore, but the local teams always get up for them.  And let’s not mistake Ok State for a good team.  They struggled with Central Michigan and beat Texas by a FG.  K State hasn’t played anyone, but they are 3-0 and had the bye week last week to prepare for this big game.  Give me 8.5 and the better coach.

Arizona State +13 @ UCLA —  Everyone is all over UCLA’s nuts.  Ohhhhh – they have a freshman QB who is all world.  Ohhhhh – the beat the piss out of Arizona.  And everyone is down on the Sparkies.  Ohhhh – they got their shit kicked in vs A&M.  Ohhhhhh – they got their shit double kicked in vs Southern Cal.  HOWEVER…. Let’s look at those games a little closer.  Sparkies were in the game at the start of the 4th vs A&M.  Then they shit the bed.  Sparkies were in the game vs USC, until they fumbled on the 1 and had it brought back for a TD.  Then they fumbled the kickoff giving USC another TD.  Then it snowballed.  Let’s look at UCLA…  They are coming off a huge emotional win in the national game of the week.  Teams that win when ESPNs Gameday is present are 14-22 ATS in their next game.  I just made that up but it is probably close to accurate.  No way will they be able to avoid a letdown, especially vs a supposedly inferior opponent.  And let’s be real, this is the same UCLA team that only beat BYU by 1.  Give me the sparkies all day long.  I expect them to win SU.

Auburn -19.5 vs San Jose State — My name is Pat, and I’m a War Eagle-aholic.  I can come up with bullshit reasons to pick them every week, even though they suck donkey dick.  My reason this week is if I keep picking them, they eventually have to cover.   The other reason is the United States Air Force Academy.  They beat the piss out of SJ State.  If SJ State had problems with that running offense, then they will struggle with Auburn as well. And Auburn needs a blowout win for confidence more than any team in the country. I expect them to let the freshman run the score up.  And if it gets in scrub time, you know the backup will want to prove that he shouldn’t have been benched.

SMU +5.5 vs ECU — I love me some SMU.  They are battled tested after playing Baylor and TCU.  They played both tough before eventually getting worn down.  They have a SSNN coach in Chad Morris (Clemson’s OC the past few years and Texas HS coaching legend).  I think we are getting serious value here because no one knows how good they are.  They lost to 2 top 10 teams and beat two cupcakes.  ECU on the other hand I have a good feel for.  They are overrated because they beat VT this past weekend.  This was a huge emotional game for them.  And it was a flukey win because it was played in a hurricane.  They are set up for letdown spot and will more than likely look like the ECU team that got clobbered by Navy, or lost to Florida, or only beat Towson by 5.  SMU wins this one SU.

Clemson pk vs Notre Dame — Here is a lesson in life, you nearly always get value by playing against Notre Dame.  Sure, they pasted UMass.  But they only beat an overrated GT team by 8 (Duke beat them by 14) and they should have lost to UVA.  You can throw out the blowout Texas win because that was with their starting QB.  Clemson on the other hand has had 16 days to prepare for this game.  Their last game was on Sept 17.  And they struggled in that game, which gives us value in this one.  The fact remains that they have one of the best QBs in college when healthy, and are tough as Fat Gretzky at home.  They have only lost 2 games at home the last 4 seasons.  They lost to FSU in 2013 who won the national championship, and they lost to SC in 2012.  Gameday will be there, and Clemson always shows up for big games EARLY in the season.  I love the home team here.

Week 6

Last week the F5 finished at a very typical 3-2.  It would really help the F5 if Auburn would show up someday.  Regardless, that brings our season total to 13-11-1.

I lust the card this week.  Take a lookie:

St. Louis +10 @ GB

STL has beat AZ and Sea straight up this year.  Sure, they also lost to Mike Vick and Capt Kirk, but we are ignoring that right now.  GB hasn’t beaten a team by more than 2 scores all year – and they have played powerhouses like Chicago and SF.  10 points is a ton to give a team that has the 2 best players on the field in what will probably be a low scoring, defensive game.  Who are those 2 players that are the best???  Todd Gurley from Tarboro, NC and the great Tavon Austin…

Cincy -2.5 v Seattle

Time to face facts – Seattle isn’t clicking on all cylinders right now making them an average football team. They should have lost to Detroit.  They destroyed a Chicago team that could place in very few special Olympic events.  And they lost SU to GB and STL (who has Tavon).  They are essentially an 0-3 team because wins vs Chicago don’t count.  Let’s not forget their 2nd best player Lynch is hurt. Of course, their best player is Steve Hauschka from NC State.  And the 4-0 Bengals are SSNN at home.  Have been for years now.  Give me the ginger and the home squad vs an overrated team traveling on a short week.

GT +7 @ Clemson

For those of you unfamiliar with elite ACC football – let me explain how this works.  Clemson will win a huge, huge game.  Then they will almost immediately shit their pants. They don’t often lose, but they will struggle and have to throw away their shit stained underwear in the trash can at work and go commando the rest of the day.  If I’ve seen it once I’ve seen it a million times. Also, teams after hosting game day are now 14-39 the game after hosting.  Good call on AZ State last week Patty.  Clemson also has had the added stress of not being able to focus on football all week.  Half the state is underwater, and that has had to affect their kids.  Give me Paul Johnson + puntos in a must win spot for GT in a rivalry game.

Navy +14.5 @ ND

Navy is very nice.  They pounded ECU who isn’t bad.  They pounded AF who hung with Mich State (actually out gained then).  I still am not sold on ND.  Their best moment was in week 1 when they killed a sucky Texas team. They have lost their starter since then.  I’m gonna fade these bastards early and often, and love that I’m getting more than 2 TDs here.

Nc State pk @ VT

Here’s a stat for you… NC State is 4-12 the last 4 years in conference road games.  They also lost their starting RB last week to stupidity.  This kid could start for any team in the country not named LSU.  They have played the weakest schedule in the P5.  They have injury issues on the OL.  VT has struggled their last few games with their backup QB, but should have their starter back this week.  This kid was dominating and beating Ohio State before he shot his mouth off and got pile driven into the turf on national TV.  They also have that halfback #45 who oozes sex.  They also have a legendary coach in need of a big win.  They have lots of NFL talent on D.  That being said – State will win by 2 TDs on National TV.  This will be my way to force you to watch my school play…

Week 7

Last week the F5 finished at a very poor 1-4.  That brings our season total to 14-15-1.  No excuse for such a performance.  I am in a slump right now, and I need some stinky dogs to pick me up.  Here are this week’s early leans:

Memphis +10.5 vs Ole Miss — Memphis has won 12 straight and are coming off a bye last week.  This will be their biggest home game in years if not ever.  Ole Miss was blah vs. Vandy (only won by 11) and got raped by UF by 28.  They are still a Mississippi school whether they like it or not. Gimme the home dog with lots of puntos.

K State +4.5 vs Oklahoma — What does K State have to do to get respect?  The played TCU tough, only to lose on a late TD.  They lost to Ok State at the bitter end as well.  These guys are extremely well coached and can play with anyone.  Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off an emotional game vs their rival.  Plus they got their ass kicked.  Gimme the home dog with some puntos.

USC +6.5 @ ND — Let me get this straight: people are giving USC less respect after they fired their HC who would coach games all hopped up on Patron???  Am I missing something here?  There is no doubt in my mind that they should get much better, not worse.  People are selling USC short because they lost to Washington and because of the Sark mess.  What they are forgetting is that USC is not some po-dunk school like Texas A&M – it is a premier job with premier talent.  I like USC to win one for the drinker here, and win this one SU.

Carolina +7 @ Seattle —  READ MY LIPS – Seattle ain’t Seattle.  Seattle has won 2 games vs Chicago who played without a QB and Detroit fumbled the game away on the 1.  They have lost the rest.  Now they face the fighting Cam’s who are undefeated, coming off a bye, and get their best player back in Luke Kuechly.  Gimme a TD all day long in a low scoring game.

Buffalo +2.5 v Cincy — Cincy is coming off a huge emotional win in a physical game vs Seattle. Now they must travel on the road to face an equally physical game in Buffalo.  Buffalo is scary for sure.  They needed late game heroics to beat Tennessee.  But they also stayed within 8 of the Patriots, something no other team has done.  Sexy Rexy can get his boys up for big games, and I have no doubt he’ll have them pumped for the undefeated, Cincinnati Fighting Gingers.

There you have it.  Five dogs – 3 home dogs.  Bonus Pick:

Auby -2 because I can’t help myself…

Week 8

Last week the F5 finished at a mediocre 2-3.  That brings our season total to 16-18-1.

I suck donkey dick.  Here are our early leans:

Southern Cal -3.5 v Utah — You remember when you were a kid, and a buddy would say “homosaywhat” and you’d always say ‘what?’ and then everyone would laugh?  That is how I feel about this line.  It doesn’t make a damn bit of sense.  When Vegas begs me to take a team, I go the other way.  Give me the Trojans.

NC State -10 @ Wake Forest — Here is a quick piece of NC State trivia for you.  When was the last time NC State won in Winston Salem?  Answer…. 2001.  That is when Phillip Rivers was throwing bombs to Jerricho Cotchery.  It has been that long.  And now State is a double digit favorite?  You gotta be shitting me.  State has looked putrid vs Louisville and VT.  See the reasoning for taking Southern Cal…

K State +4 @ Texas — Texas’ last game – thumped Oklahoma.  K State’s last game – lost to Oklahoma a zillion to zip.  Boys – we are buying low on K State and buying high on Texas.  Gimme those puntos. K State wins SU.

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3.5 @ The Fighting Cam Newtons — Philly’s O sucks, but the D is pretty good.  Carolina’s O sucks, but the D is pretty good.  Gimme 3.5 in what will likely be a 10-7 game.  Here’s to several back foot throw picks from Cam and no underthrow, end zone picks from Sammy Glass Legs.

St Louis -5.5 v Cleveland — STL coming off a bye.  STL has the best RB in the game.  Cleveland just played an emotional game vs Noodle-Armed Manning.  And Cleveland has the worst run D in the NFL.  Lots of bad stuff is going to happen to Cleveland in this game.  And don’t forget the Tavon factor.  Gimme STL in a blow-out.

Week 9

Last week the F5 finished at 3-2.  That brings our season total to 19-20-1.

Vandy +11.5 @ Houston — Vandy ain’t bad and they play good D.  Gimme dem points.

Auby +7.5 v Ole Miss — I think Ole Miss is super overrated.  Auby has to cover someday.  I think this is the week.

Sea -6 @ Dallas — Sea’s D vs Brandon Weeden?  Yes please.

GB -3 @ Denver — Denver is done.  They get exposed for the fraud they are on national TV.

Indy +7 @ Carolina —  Carolina had the game of the week last week.  Getting up big for 2 prime time games in a row is tough.

Week 10

Last week the F5 finished at 1 and 4.  That brings our season total to 20-24-1.

Before I make my picks, I want to tell a story.  When I was in college there was a girl.  I don’t remember her name, so let’s call her Destiny.  Destiny wasn’t very attractive.  She was kind of boring.  She was a slightly below average chick – just like the Fishy 5.

However, on one Friday night she got locked out of her dorm room.  She came to visit an RA to get a key.  The RA was watching A Walk to Remember and eating ice cream because that is what this RA liked to do.  She was a huge Mandy Moore fan and decided to watch as well.  By the end of the movie, the RA and Destiny were cuddling.

Cuddling led to an awkward boner for the RA.  Said boner started poking her in the ass.  This then led to kissing.  Kissing led to groping which led to unlocking the most ferocious sex beat Owen Hall had ever seen.  That was a wild weekend for the young RA, one he probably remembers years later while he sits in his cubicle pissed off that every Tom, Dick and Harry keeps walking in asking him dumbass questions while he is trying to make his football picks…

So what is the point of all that?  Magical weekends happen to average people.  And that is what will happen with the Fishy 5 this weekend…

Indiana +7 vs. Iowa — Destiny is a lot like Indiana.  At first glance she doesn’t impress you, but when you dig deeper you know she is a hellcat in Uggs.  Indiana played Ohio State tough.  They also played Michigan State tough until the last 5 minutes of the game.  They know they can play with anyone in the country.  They have a top notch O both on land and air.  But they are young, and that has hurt them playing 8 games before their bye (the lost the last 4).  However, they got their bye last week and now they play an Iowa team that is on a big high after getting ranked 9th in whatever they call the BCS now.  But Iowa is very banged up.  QB, 3 of their 4 RBs and both OTs are hurt.  And Iowa will try to play a ball control game vs a strong Indiana front 7.  You beat Indiana by passing, not throwing.  This one is set up for an upset.  Gimme 7 and the live home dog.

Utah +1 vs Washington — Utah was Cinderella at the ball.  Riding high in the top 5.  Then they got embarrassed by an unranked USC team.  And Washington beat that same USC team.  Some things that work in college (Mandy Moore Movies and the transitive property) don’t work in real life. This is one of those instances.  USC is undisciplined, and that is why they lost to UW.  Utah doesn’t have premier athletes, and that is why they lost to USC.  Utah is disciplined and Washington doesn’t have premier athletes meaning this game plays right into Utah’s hands.  Utah reminds me a lot of Destiny.  They are forgotten and overlooked, but can work a mad D.  That is my kind of team.

Arkansas +11 @ Ole Miss — Arkansas isn’t bad.  They hung with Bama and A&M.  Beat Auby and Tenny.  Like Destiny, they know who they are and what they are good at.  For Arkansas it is running the football.  For Destiny it is giving good head.  You work with what the good Lord gave you.  On the flip side, I am just not impressed at all by Ole Miss.  They should have lost to Auburn.  They got humiliated by Memphis and Florida.  And let’s not forget that Arkansas beat that ass 30-zip last year.  Gimme 11 because that is a lot of points in what could be a low-scoring affair.

Nebraska +6 vs. Michigan State — Let me get this straight.  A team that lost to Purdue and Northwestern the last two weeks is less than a TD dog vs the undefeated Spartans?  The same Nebraska team that had a famous former coach issue a letter this week supporting the new head coach while commenting on the HC that was fired at the end of last season?  Vs the same MSU team that is coming off a bye that will eliminate the hangover from their craziest win in school history?  Just like when spending a blissful weekend with Destiny – if it smells like fish its delish!  Take the points and run because it doesn’t make a damn bit of sense.

The Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ Dallas — At this point, I plan on being 4-0.  And who better to take me to the promised land than my very own Philadelphia Eagles?  Dallas is a mess.  Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel and Darren McFadden are responsible for winning an actually NFL game?  And Dallas is coming off a heart-breaking loss to Seattle?  And now they have to play their hated rival who is embarrassed after getting killed early in the season?  Philly wins this one by DDs – the same double D’s that Destiny was hiding under her frumpy sweatshirts…

Week 11

Last week the F5 finished at 4 and 1.  That brings our season total to 24-25-1.  Destiny would have been proud of such a solid weekend.  Also – F Indiana and their hundred dropped passes.  What a joke of a program and university.

Before I start this week’s picks, I want to tell you about Lauren.  Lauren went to Northern Arizona University.  I met her at Club Majestic during spring break 1999.  Lauren was smoking hot, and had a thing for skinny, pasty guys (which I was at the time).

Being a young buck I had not been exposed to a lot of the finer things in life – like slutty Arizona women.  I was in a big way that week.  And this chick was crazy.  A lot of what happened that week shall remain in my clouded memory, but there was one special moment that could show how awesome this chick was…

We were at Club Majestic because that is what we did every night.  We were having good college fun.  I was hanging with a few of my buddies when Lauren came up to us.  She ignored everyone but me.  It was like they weren’t even there.  Then she pulled my hand out, put her lacy black thong in it, and then slowly walked out of the club. I took the hint, winked at my buddies, and took off after her.  I am not positive, but I am sure my buddies are still standing there in disbelief…

That week was the highest of highs.  I have traveled the world, won five figures on a football game, written best-selling books, lectured sororities and tailgated at an Auburn football game, but I have never felt so on top of the world as I did that week.  Nothing will top that amazing spring break in Clearwater, Florida.

The next week, with school and work and who the fuck cares, was an ultimate letdown.  My mind and emotions were still with the vixen from Northern Arizona.

What is the point of that story?  It is nearly impossible for a college kid to bounce back after a huge high.  Think about it: Club Majestic, bikinis and crystal clear water one week – Sorrycuse, NY the next?  Fancy underpanties, morning beers and tongue tricks one week – New Brunswick, NJ the next?? If I haven’t made my point yet; you, my friend, are a lost cause…

Now the picks:

Syracuse +27.5 vs Clemson — Clemson is damn good – they are probably the best team in the country.  However, they got a huge monkey off their back last week by playing an ugly game vs FSU.  Now they have to travel to Syracuse in what will be a huge letdown spot.  Syracuse sucks on the road, but has been tough at home winning their first 3 then playing LSU and Pitt tough before losing in the 4th of each game.  There is no way Syracuse wins, but they have proven they can score.  If they can score 21+ (which they have done every week but last week vs Louisville when they scored 17) they should cover.

Rutgers +9.5 vs Nebraska — Nebraska was such a sharp play last week.  It took major skills and gonads to take them to cover, much less win straight up.  However, now that they have their season defining win they must go to Rutgers in an obvious let-down spot.  Rutgers sucks without a doubt, but we are getting value due to their tough schedule.  They have played Wisky, Michigan and OSU the last three weeks and got drilled each time.  Before that they beat Indiana and played Michigan State tough.  And while everyone in America watched Nebraska play an unbelievable game vs Michigan State, let’s not forget that this is the same team that had lost 5 of its previous 7 with their only wins coming against Minny and Southern Miss.  Gimme 9.5 and the ugly home dog.

Oklahoma +2.5 @ Baylor — This is my stone-cold lock of the year.  This one will put folding money in your pocket.  Let’s examine Baylor first…  First, their QB broke his freaking neck and is replaced by a freshman.  The freshman has one game under his belt, where he played a tight game with K State.  There is a bigger picture here though.  Baylor has built an 8-0 record by playing the bottom of the conference and an SEC-like out of conference schedule (SMU, Lamar and Rice – are you kidding me?)…  They haven’t played Ok State or TCU yet.  On the flip side, everyone remembers Oklahoma getting housed by Texas.  But what they don’t remember is that OK has scored 52+ in each of its last 4 blowout wins.  OK is in the same boat as Baylor in that they haven’t played OK State or TCU yet.  However, they are playing great ball lately and when you stop to think about it, it is absurd that Oklahoma would ever be a dog to Baylor.  They have a better everything than Baylor and they are about to drop a big shit on the entire city of Waco.

Tennessee +4 vs Carolina —  If it smells like fish…  The undefeated Cam Newton’s are only giving 4 vs the lowly Titans?  The same Titans who just shit-canned their coach?  And the same Carolina that beat the Packers, Colts, Eagles and Seahawks the last 4?  Sure, Tenny had a nice win vs New Orleans, but let’s not forget they lost the 6 games prior to that.  This is so fishy it it makes Nebraska from last week look square.  Vegas wants Cam money, so run the other way….

Arizona +3 @ Seattle — Seattle is so overrated this year it isn’t funny.  I’m not sure if it is the Super Bowl hangover or what, but they aren’t the same team as they were the last two years.  And people refuse to acknowledge how good Arizona is.  They very well could be the best team in the NFL.  They are definitely the better team in this game.  Seattle can’t score, and AZ has a top-notch defense.  This will probably make this a game played in the teens.  Gimme a FG and the better team all day long.  And let’s not forget the prime time theory.  This is a prime time game and the better team will win.

Week 12

Last week the F5 finished at 3 and 2.  That brings our season total to 27-27-1.  We are back where we started, and it is EXHAUSTING fighting the good fight to get back to where you were in the past…  And that leads me to part 2 of the Lauren from Northern Arizona saga..

Lauren and I said our good-byes after a week of discovery and hangovers in Clearwater, FL.  It was bitter sweet as I knew I would never see her again, but I was pretty happy about the amazing week we had just spent together.  We exchanged email address and AOL Instant Messenger names (remember that???) and she headed west and I headed back to NC State.

So I’m back in my dorm room and an IM pops up.  She missed me and wanted to know what I was doing.  She then started her nightly ritual of explaining to me what type of underwear she was wearing and what she wanted to do with me.  This went on for a few weeks.  It wasn’t very productive, but it was fun.

Anyway, a few weeks go by and she told me she looked at NC State’s academic schedule, and she and her friend bought plane tickets to visit the week after school ends.  Her friend was hooking up with my buddy Lurch.  They were expecting a good time.

Holy crap did time move slow then.  Her IMs were getting raunchier and raunchier.  May couldn’t get here soon enough, but it finally does.

So Lurch and I pick up the girls at the airport in my Jeep (I was a young pimp daddy) and headed to the beach. And everything is going a little awkwardly.

So to try to cut the edge, I suggest we all go to dinner.  We have drinks, do some shots and have a good time. Lauren and I go back to our hotel room, and Lurch and his butterball go back to theirs.

So Lauren and I are in our room, and I expect the fury of 3 months of instant messages to be unleashed and she starts crying.

FFFFFFFFFFFFF – I knew this wasn’t good.

She explains that she now has a boyfriend, and she promised him that she wouldn’t play with my little pecker.  She said she was EMOTIONALLY EXHAUSTED and didn’t know what to do (kind of like getting back to 500 in the F5).

I play it cool and say it’s all good.  Let’s crash and we’ll have a good day at the beach tomorrow.  I wasn’t going down without a fight.

We have an awesome day at the beach, and then get a killer meal that night.  She looks unbelievable in her yellow bikini, but I play it cool and don’t make a move at all.

Later that night we are back in our room, and she says she has an idea.  While she promised no touching, she didn’t think there would be anything wrong with me watching her get undressed.  After all, she had described this to me every day for months and I should at least get to see what I was missing.

This was pretty awesome, but also hugely disappointing.  She realized this, and had a more creative idea…

Anyway, this shit is getting way too long…  I need to make some picks!

VT +6.5 vs UNC — Game of the year time here boys…  On one hand you got UNC.  They have been killing teams lately putting up 50 and 60 points a game.  They are on a high from having their best season in over a decade.  But they are a bunch of pastel-wearing, cupcake eating sausage mongers.  And they are the ultimate paper tiger.  They have played nobody!  After losing to Spurrier (who was a punching bag this season) they beat NC A&T, Illinois, Delaware, GT, Wake, UVA, Pitt, Duke and Miami.  Not exactly murderer’s row.  On the other hand you have VT.  They have had a tough year after losing their starting QB to a broken collarbone.  He is finally back, and they are starting to play good ball beating BC and then coming from down 14 to beat GT.  What was the reason they fought so hard to win at GT?  They want to send Frank Beamer bowling one last time.  And now they have his last home game in Lane Stadium.  You know it will be a full house and the team will be playing inspired. And it doesn’t hurt that they had a few extra days to prepare as they had the Thursday game last week.  Gimme VT in the SU upset!

LSU +4 @ Ole MIss — Damn son… LSU got pasted the last two weeks and now they get the ultimate insult.  They are underdogs to a Mississippi school.  There are few things more embarrassing then that.   I am obviously a charter member of the Ole Miss hater club.  They are living off beating Alabama in September.  And that doesn’t mean dick in November.  What does matter is Ole Miss can’t stop the run as evidenced by giving up 50+ to Arkansas in their last game.  Fournette is going to be super motivated after two bad outings.  As a rule in life, if you get more than FG with LSU vs anyone but Alabama you take it and be happy about it.  That definitely applies here.

Baylor pk @ Ok State — This might be the biggest football game in Ok State history.  And here is how it will go down.  Ok State will wait all day for the game to finally start.  By the time kick-off happens, they will be pumped and will play well the first half.  However, by halftime they will be EMOTIONALLY EXHAUSTED and the better team will come out on top.  Of course the worry with Baylor is will Oklahoma beat them twice.  I think not as Baylor still thinks they can win the B12 and a seat at the final 4 table. Gimme Baylor in a double digit win (it will probably be 124-98)…

Cincinnati +4 @ Arizona — Andy Dalton.  The Red Rifle!  The Glamorous Ginger!  Fuckin A he was terrible on Monday night. He was completely and utterly dominated by Houston.  I have never seen anything like it unless there was $100,000 on the line.  And now he has to go to AZ on a short week?  And Arizona administered as thorough an ass-kicking in Seattle as anyone has done since Russell Wilson made it to the bigs.  And now is the time to buy low on Cincy and sell high on Arizona.  Cincy is still only a one loss team.  You can’t believe Eifort will play as terrible as he did two weeks in a row.  You got to figure their pride is hurt after getting embarrassed on national TV.  They are a solid football team, and you got to figure they will show it.  On the flip side, Arizona just got off a very physical game against Seattle.  In the game after playing Seattle teams are 1-6 vs the spread.  I made that up but I bet it is close to accurate.  And AZ doesn’t exactly have a list of great wins to their credit.  They beat an overrated Seattle team, Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit, SF and Chicago.  They have lost to STL and Pittsburgh without Big Ben.  I think we are getting a lot of value here and will gladly take more than a FG.  I bet Cincy wins SU.

Buffalo +7.5 @ NE — NE is a mess injury wise.  Edelman is out.  Dion Lewis is out.  Jamie Collins may be out.  They had 3 starting O lineman not play last week vs NYG.  I know it is Belichik and Brady, but eventually all the injuries have to add up.  On the flip side you get Buffalo, and Rex Ryan hates the Pats more than anyone.  They have won two straight, have the long week since they had the Thursday night game last week, and they know they can play with NE after losing 40-32 in week 1 when NE was at full strength.  This is a much weaker NE team.  I think NE wins, but it will be close.

Week 13

Last week the F5 finished at an inspired 4 and 1.  That brings our season total to 31-28-1.  We are back in the lacy black baby!  Happy times are here for all.

Which leads me to the last installment of the Lauren Trilogy…

So we end up doing the beach thing for a few days.  She is a pretty cool chick, but entertaining a chick for that long is excruciating without the extracurricular activities.  I know my only chance though is to play it cool – so I do so.

Finally, at about night 4 I realize I had enough.  I am going to piss away the whole week trying to be cool if I wasn’t careful.  So I decide to make my move.

I tell Lurch and Jabba the Hut that Lauren and I were going to fly solo tonight.  Lurch knew about my blue balls and said it was about time.

My first thought was that I had to take her back to the memories of Spring Break in Clearwater.  I had to get here thinking about memories of frolicking in the beach, dry humping at Club Majestic, going to IHOP at 3AM, and disappearing from our friends so we could get alone time.

But then I came to my senses.  No bitch is worth this much effort. I was about to start summer vacation unattached.  I would probably get chlamydia or some other awesome venereal disease that summer.   I needed to have some pride.  It was time to sack up.

So I told her I’m going to throw bones and she is welcome to join me.  I was heading out to the Indian in 45 minutes. And then I did the most boss move of all time.

I gave her back the sexy, black thong she had given me at the bar on Spring Break.  I had saved it and sniffed it at least six times a day.  I told her that this was the sexiest thing I have ever seen her in, and that is what she needed to wear tonight for good luck.

So we get to the casino and start throwing bones.  I win a few and then lose a few.  Then this old bastard who was at least 200 years old wheels to the table.  He ends up throwing and hitting points for about 20 minutes. The dude was on fire.  It was a glorious thing and I was well into four figures by the time he was done.

I then whispered to Lauren, “are you wearing what I gave you?”  She looked at me and winked.  She knew exactly what I was getting at.

So right there, with everyone watching at the table, she slips them off from under her mini-skirt, and walks over to the old man.  She smiles at him, puts her underwear in his hand, and then kisses him on the lips leaving a smear of red lipstick.  Then she walks away to get some air as the drunken crowd at the craps pit goes absolutely nuts.

When we finally got back to our room, she whispered to me: “this is your last night, make it count.”  Happy times..

The next afternoon we were back in Raleighwood and I dropped her and Shrek off at the airport.  She gave me a big hug, and slipped something into my back pocket.  I watched her walk out of my life forever for the second time before reaching into my pocket.

In my pocket was the black thong and a note.  The note said, “These are yours, I gave the old man another pair.  I want them back someday. – Lauren.”

Damn that was an awesome chick.

Anyway, with memories of Lauren warming my soul I am on a bit of a heater.  I love some stinky pups this week.  Here is what we got:

Oregon State +34.5 @ Oregon — Oregon State sucks.  Holy shit they suck.  But they have sucked before and only once in the last 15 years has Oregon covered that many points vs Oregon State.  In fact, most of these games play pretty close believe-it-or-not.  Oregon has been playing great ball of late without a doubt.  But they are coming off a big game vs Stanford and they still aren’t very good at D and not nearly as explosive on O as in years past.  This is a shitload of points and I think Oregon State scores 24 in the game.  That means Oregon has to be in the 60s to win.  Not impossible, but I don’t think it happens.

Ohio State +1.5 @ Michigan — This line is skewed after last week’s Ohio State game.  Ohio State lost to Michigan State in a game that was played in a monsoon.  Ohio State played poorly, and that gives us a ton of value in this game.  There is no doubt that Michigan is better, but they aren’t that much better.  And they aren’t playing as good as they did early in the year.  I think Elliott gets the ball a lot for Ohio State and I think Barrett plays much better.  Ohio State wins this one by 10.

South Carolina +16.5 @ Clemson — I love Clemson.  I think they are the best team in the country. However, the last 4 games they have struggled vs NC State, should have lost to FSU, struggled at Syracuse and turned in an average performance vs Wake.  And although South Carolina shit their pants in epic fashion last week, they have still played better since Spurrier quit on them. They gave Florida, Tenny and A&M all they can handle.  I think last week’s cluster gives us good value on a team that will play inspired after getting humiliated.  SC would like nothing more than to spoil Clemson’s dream season.  I say they lose, but keep it to about 10 points.

Auburn +13.5 vs Bama —  Bama struggles vs spread teams.  And Bama struggles to score.  In fact, they have only scored more than 40 once to anyone not named Charleston Southern and that was vs A&M a month ago.  13.5 is a lot of points when your team can’t score.  Auburn has had a very disappointing season, but can salvage a lot by ruining Bama’s.  I think they keep it close for most of the game and lose by about 10.

Denver +3 vs New England —  New England is beat up. 13 guys on IR and Amendola may be 14. They are starting an undrafted rookie at center.  Brady got beat up vs Buffalo on Monday night.  Now he has to travel out west on a short week to play a very emotional game. Denver will play a ball control game and look to win on the ground.  But Ozzy can sling it if necessary and did a great job taking care of the ball in his first game.  I think the healthier team wins this one SU.

Week 14

Last week the F5 finished at an inspired 4 and 1.  That makes us winners in 8 of our last 10 and 11 of our last 15 and 15 of our last 20.  And that is what you call a month long heater.  I made November my bitch.  It also brings our season total to 35-29-1.  Firmly in the black, just like my buddy Cuzzy.

So what prevented us from going 5-0?   Asswipe Nick Saban running up the score with Fatass Derrick Henry doing the dirty deed.  That Bama bunch is all class…

Regardless, that makes me think of my first fatass.  Now, I’m not talking your run of the mill chunky girl. Those chicks are actually a lot of fun until they hit about 23 or 24 and gravity gets the best of them.  They have big boobies, and are eager to please as they know they aren’t getting by on their looks.

I’m not talking about those chicks – I’m talking about sloppy, giant, high-heeled, trout-looking behemoths that prey on drunk kids with a lot of hair.  I’m talking about Cynthia.

Cynthia and I met my first weekend of college.  I moved in on Friday, and on Saturday afternoon I found myself at an outdoor frat party.  Day turned to night, and sober turned to sloppy.  Real sloppy.  And Cynthia was on the prowl.

Being relatively new to the binge drinking scene, I went way too hard way too early and I was borderline ready to pass out.  Cynthia realized this and said I could crash at her place as it was just down the street.  Since I lived miles away and my buddies had long since ditched me, I figured this was my best option.

We got to her place and it turned out it was the fatty sorority house!  And, needless to say, I caught my second wind.

When we got to her room she took me to her bed.  She told me to wait a sec and disappeared into her bathroom. I then passed out.

When I woke up she was on top of me wearing a furry red bra and matching panties.  Her underwear actually had fake fur on them!  Very grrrrrrrrrr baby….

She had taken my clothes off (golf shirt & jean shorts).  She left my tidy whities on.  She was sweating and grinding on me and she was about to start a grease fire.  And then she yelled at me.  She said, “just lay there bitch!  I’m almost done.”

I was confused. I was scared.  I was being sweat on.  I was being suffocated by cellulite.  My only defense was to pass out, so I did.

When I woke up it was the middle of the night and I was in for a pleasant surprise.  My wildebeest was gone (thank God).  However, it turns out I was a little drunker than I thought and I had pissed her bed.  Pretty embarrassing, but not much I could do about it…

So I did the only three things I could do.  First, I stole a pair of gym shorts and a t shirt from Cynthia.  Then, I stole the pair of furry underpanties that were on the floor.  I lefty my piss stained underwear in trade.  I had to have proof for my roommate that this actually happened.  There was no way he would believe this.  Then I walked out into the hallway, and met Megan.

Megan was an awesome, awesome chick.  She once was a fatty, but decided that wasn’t the life she wanted to live and slimmed down big time.  She was the dream, a smoking hot chick who was awesome because she was once damaged goods.  She laughed at me, and asked if I had fun riding the bull.  I guess I wasn’t the first sucker to get taken advantage of.  Embarrassed I told her that I’m not really sure.  She just smiled and said, “come on cowboy, I’ll give you a ride home.”

We’ll discuss Megan more next week….

Megan reminds me to a very profitable betting strategy.  Look for teams that are damaged goods.  The public will be down on these teams, and you can get lots of points and good value.  And who knows, maybe they will lose 50 lbs and become hot.  That’s what we’ll be looking for this week.

New Orleans +7 vs Carolina — New Orleans is dogshit.  Brees is not a winner.  Never has been, never will be.  Now he is just a worn out midget with a shit stain on his cheek.  And he is going up against the #1 team in the NFL – The Fighting Cam Newtons.  Carolina has been playing great ball after blowing out the Skins and Cowboys in back to back weeks.  But the NFL is about the regression to the mean.  You know New Orleans will be ready to play at home vs a team they always play tough.  Carolina isn’t going to cover every week.  Look for a letdown after the big win in Dallas.  Gimme the home dog in a SU upset.

Philly +10 @ NE — Philly isn’t only a fat chick.  Philly is the toothless fat chick wearing spandex who has puke breath and wants to sit on your face.  It doesn’t get any lower than back to back blowout losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay.  But New England has serious problems – like only having Brandon Lafell as a WR.  Like having two undrafted rooks on the OL.  I think Philly and the Chipper show a lot of pride here after getting blown out on national TV last week.  That gives them a long week and hopefully Bradford can play.  NE is on a short week having the Sunday night game on the west coast.  Gimme DDs in a close game.

Clemson -5 vs UNC — UNC has put together a nice little season where they have beat nobody any good.  Their best wins were vs Pitt (who got shellacked by Miami) and NC State (who’s best win was Syracuse).  They give up HUGE chunks of yards on D. They gave up 500 yards to State last weekend including 300+ on the ground.  Clemson hasn’t played good ball lately, which gives us great value in this game.  This will be a high scoring affair – bet your mortgage on the over.  But take Clemson as they will win by DDs.

Iowa +3.5 vs Michigan State — Iowa is undefeated.  Michigan State has been outgained in most of their games.  Michigan State had a miracle happen to them vs Michigan, and were very fortunate with Ohio State (JT Barrett coming off suspension in a hurricane).  I agree that Iowa hasn’t played anyone, but they haven’t lost to anyone either and its December.   I love that they will be playing for respect in this one and will be getting more than a FG.  They win SU.

Texas +20.5 @ Baylor — Baylor is on their 3rd string QB.  This 3rd stringer was 7-24 passing in his start last week – a loss vs TCU.  Baylor is also playing for nothing as they were knocked out of the final 4 and conference title by losing last week.  Texas sucks, but can run the ball.  They had 400 yards rushing vs TT.  A ball control offense coupled with a 3rd string QB equals a lower scoring affair.  That makes covering 20.5 a huge task.  Gimme the points.

Week 15

Last week the F5 finished at a perfect 5-0.  That makes us winners in 13 of our last 15 and 16 of our last 20 and 20 of our last 25.  It also brings our season total to 40-29-1.

That type of heat makes me think of Megan…

Megan dropped me off at my dorm room after saving me from Cynthia.  She also gave me her number.  She asked me to call her sometime.

I was rushing my fraternity and about a few days in they had a date-function.  Of course, I didn’t know any girls outside Megan.  So I called her and asked if she could save me again by being my date to the function.  She eagerly agreed.

The event was a cook-out at an apartment complex.  Megan showed up in a yellow sundress and heels.  Exceptionally hot.

As with most fraternity events, it got out of control and a few girls decided to go swimming in the apartment pool. As they didn’t have swim suits they took their shirts off and went swimming in shorts and bras.  This was pretty awesome.

I looked over to Megan to get her reaction.  She was not impressed, and did not join the slut convention in the pool.  However, she did invite me to spend Labor Day weekend with her and her parents at their house on Lake Gaston.  I eagerly accepted.

So we get to her parent’s lake house, and we eat lunch and make our introductions.  I could tell her old man wasn’t terribly fond of Megan dragging a guy she just met with her on the family vacation.

After lunch we went out on the lake.  Megan was in a yellow string bikini – which to this day might be the hottest thing I have ever seen.  I remember feeling awkward that Megan would wear a suit like that around her parents.  I got a boner.

Anyway, they had a jet ski so Megan and I took it out.  Once we got out of sight of the dock she pulled it over.  She then flipped around on the jetski, took her top off, and we started going at it.  She was grinding on me and got me good and chubbed up.  She promised me she would take care of that later.  It was an awesome afternoon.

Fast forward a few hours and now it is time for bed.  I am in the guest room down the hall from Megan.  She whispers to me to wait an hour, then come to her room.

I wait an hour, and creep to her room.  When I open the door she is gets out of bed and leads me to a chair.  She takes her clothes off and starts making good on her earlier promise.

And damn was she into it.  She was SUPER loud, but I figured she wasn’t stupid and everything was cool.

Just went the going was getting good the door crashes open, and the lights are turned on.  It is her old man with a shotgun!  It is pointed right at me.  I guess Megan was too loud.

He looks at me, and says very calmly, “boy, you got 2 seconds to get the hell out of this house”.  I pull my britches up, grab my shit and get out of there.

I end up hitchhiking back to Raleigh that night.

That weekend was exhilarating and terrifying.  It was exciting and frightening.  It was legendary and forgetful.  It was pretty much like the Fishy 5.

This week’s picks:

Tampa Bay -3.5 vs New Orleans  —  NO shot their wad last week.  They gave Carolina all they wanted, but ultimately came up a little short in a very emotional and physical game.  Now they have to go on the road to play TB. Let’s not forget NO got blown out by Washington and Houston in their last two roadies.  The shit stain does not travel well.  And Tampa is playing damn good ball as they have won 3 of their last 4.  If Ted Ginn can get deep whenever he wants, I can’t imagine what MIke Evans and Vincent Jackson are going to do.  I hate giving up the hook here, but gotta do it in what will be a blowout.

SF +1.5 @ Cleveland —  The owner is forcing the head coach to play Jonny Football. The head coach does not want to play him.  It is bad news when the coach is being forced to play a player he doesn’t want to play.  And SF has been playing great ball the past two weeks.  The beat Chicago and should have been Arizona.  And Cleveland sucks – they have lost 7 straight and most by blowout.  Wrong team is favored here.  Gimme the fighting Blaines.

Cincy -3 vs Pittsburgh — Pittsburgh had a blowout win in the national TV game of the week.  Now they travel on a short week to a perpetually underrated team who probably is the best home team in the NFL.  Still can’t believe Cincy gets no respect.  Gimme the fighting Gingers by 7.

Atlanta +7.5 @ Carolina —  Carolina is legit.  However, Cam has a concussion regardless of what the media reports.  He also got beat up pretty good in a physical game vs New Orleans.  Atlanta has lost 5 straight, but only one has been more than 7.  They also have a solid QB and the best WR in the NFL.  Teams that can pass have given Carolina trouble (Indy, GB, New Orleans).    Carolina is now the hunted team, and will get their best effort from everyone.  I expect Carolina to win another close one, but not cover.  Love that I’m getting the hook.

Oakland +7.5 @ Denver —  I love Brocky – not liking him would be un-American.  However, let’s be real here. He only put up 10 vs Sd who is putrid (one TD was a pick 6).  He should have lost to Chicago and New England’s JV squad.  Now you are giving me 7.5 in a rivalry game?  I can see them winning, but no way to they cover.  And let’s not forget Oakland has 3 games of film on Brock, which other teams did not have.  That is a huge advantage.  Oakland will be very tough in this one.

Week 16

Last week the F5 finished at a miserable 1-4.  Regression to the mean at its finest.  It also brings our season total to 41-33-1.

Coming crashing back to earth is tough.  And that reminds me of the Kappa Kappa Gamma Formal at UNC.

I was on a blind date for the formal.  Interesting fact, the chick I was with went to Columbine High School.  And she was stupid hot.  Insanely hot.  Absurdly hot. And I got the sense she was into skinny, awkward kids…

We pre-game at her apartment with a couple of her friends.  Everything is going great.  I’m funny.  I’m catching a little buzz.  Life was good.

Then they ask me to carry two flasks with me to the party as I was the only one who was 21.  No problems.

We get to the formal, and I’m on fire.  I am probably the world’s worst dancer, but I wasn’t that night.  That night I was straight sex on the dance floor.  Chicks digged me, and dudes just wanted to shake my hand.  I was that impressive.

As the evening wore on, I pulled out the ultimate player move.  I put my bow-tie on her, and she wore it proudly.  I was marking my territory.

Then, my world came crashing down with the power and fury of the Trenchcoat Mafia.

I had been over-served, and I was hitting the wall.  I had to think of something.

I started eating everything I could find (bad move).  I started chugging water (another bad move). I went outside to get some air (I was a dead man).

Realizing I was done I tried to cut my losses.  I wanted to make sure I didn’t make a fool of myself.  Fortunately her apartment was within walking distance of the party.  We started walking back.  She lost my bowtie (cost me $50 to replace) and I ran into a moving car (or maybe it hit me – hard to tell).  I was not hurt (much).

Now we are back at her apartment.  I’m on a tilt-a-whirl.  I gotta find a safe place.

So I head to the bathroom and discreetly lose my cookies.  By discreet it sounded like I was having intercourse with a yak.  Feeling better, I decide to get up because I am going to try to rally.  I stumble and grab the towel rack to support myself.  I rip it off the wall and am falling again.  So I grab the shower curtain.  I rip that off the wall too.  And of course it takes down a picture with it and shatters the glass frame.  Not gooooooood.

By the time I get my shit together to exit my safe place, there is already a cab waiting to take me to a buddies house.  I apologize and am poured into the cab.

I barf down Franklin street while getting yelled at by an Arabian cab driver.  A very poetic way to end the night.

Why do I tell that story?  Because that is how last weekend felt.  I was on top of the world.  I was 10 and goddam 0 the past two weeks and 14 and 1 the last three.  I wasn’t only going to nail Columbine, but I was probably going to take out half the exec board that night.  And then it ended.  Tragically, emotionally, historically, disgustingly, epically – it ended.

Later that night though I reconnected with an old friend.  I drunk dialed an old flame.  An old friend who was always there for me and gave great head.  Sometimes you have to go back to your roots.  Go back to a place you are comfortable.  Go back to where you can be you.  Sometimes you gotta seek the stinkiest dogs.  You to have to embrace them.  You have to cherish them with all you got.

Because at the end of the day, I have always viewed myself as an underdog.  I’m a fighter who embraces the struggle.  I choose to get by on will-power and guile, because I lack pure talent.  I’m an overweight, graying douchebag with a small pecker and a big heart.  But I know deep down that every dog has their day in the sun.  Sunday is going to be my day.

Detroit +3 @ NO — Detroit has been playing good ball.  They got beat by a team that plays great D.  It happens.  STL shows up about five games a season.  New Orleans sucks.  They don’t play D.  Their QB isn’t a winner.  Gimme the Lions – because that is a stinky dog.

Denver +6 @ Pitt — If 88 could have caught at a jr high level Denver wins last week going away.  And then this spread would have been flipped and Denver would be 6 point favorites.  Denver still has a top-notch D.  And they can run vs a pitiful Pittsburgh D.  6 is just too many puntos.  Gimme Brock and almost a TD because he’s got a lot of dog in him.

ATL +3 @ Jax — ATL loses 4 million to zip.  Jax wins 77 to 3.  Yep – this one feels so right.  Gimme Atlanta all day every day and twice when I’m wrecking a sorostitute’s bathroom.  This one is ugly.

Chicago +5.5 @ Minny — It is hard to bet Cutler.  He is so not-clutch.  And he can’t eat sugar.  Not a good combo.  While he isn’t a winner, Chicago keeps every game close.  And that is all you can ask for a dog player.  Keep it close and gimme a chance for the backdoor at the end.  Words to live by.

Tenny +14 @ New England — I am so scared.  Tommy Terrific.  The Gronk.  The Hoodie.  You gotta be nuts to pick against them.  I am.  I take DD dogs on principal.  Because that is the type of guy I am.

Been a good season of the F5.  Hope you guys enjoyed the words of wisdom.  I have enjoyed sharing them.

Final Tally:

Last week the F5 finished at a miserable 2-3.  It also brings our final season total to 43-36-1 or a very respectable 54.4%.

Some lessons learned in hindsight:

Quit betting Auburn.

Hope you tailed the good ones and faded the bad ones.

Keep Picking Those Dogs!

— Pat Hagerty

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