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Fishy Five Picks 2016 – Season Recap

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 20 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

The Fishy Five finished the 2016 season at 50-56-5 on the year for 47.2%.

It was an odd year.

There were seven straight weeks in the middle of the season where Vegas got killed.  In fact, Vegas got killed in nine of eleven weeks during that stretch.  Favorites and public plays were covering at an unprecedented clip, all the way to the Super Bowl.  As sharps and pros a frequently on the other side of the public, they got killed too.  There is no doubt that this was the Year of the Square.

While that is 100% true, it is foolish not to analyze and learn from our losses.  After a lot of careful study, here are some of the lessons I learned from this year:

1) I’m a College Guy

I was 57% on college sides this season, and 41% in the NFL.  That makes sense to me.  I like to make plays based on situational advantages.  Those advantages seem to be stronger with college kids as they are more emotional.  It also makes sense as I look to fade the public, and the public killed it in the NFL.  As a result, I was turned into road kill with my NFL plays.

2) Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you.  Fool me for months, and I’m a damn fool.

I was 3-15 in games involving New England, Dallas and Denver this year.  Those three teams killed my season.

With New England, I could not believe a team with a bunch of midget, white receivers and missing their 2nd best player (Gronk) could cover every week.  That was a very expensive lesson.  I’m glad I avoided fading them in the Super Bowl.  It took every ounce of strength to not pound Atlanta…

With Dallas and Denver, I could not believe they could cover every week with such inexperienced and young QBs.  That would eventually be true, but I was long off that train by the time it was profitable.

The lesson here is to stay away from fading the hot team.  There is no need to get cute and try to outsmart everyone.  Just stay the hell away…

3) Never Underestimate Coaching

In Week 14 Atlanta was -3.5 vs KC at home.  Atlanta was thoroughly out-coached in that game.  ATL should have won by double digits.  The turning point in the game was a brilliantly executed fake punt by KC.  Atlanta was the better team, but did not have the better coach.

Fast forward to the Super Bowl.  The exact same scenario played out.  Atlanta was better and more talented than New England.  It showed for most of the game.  But when it was time for coaching to win the game, Atlanta choked like Lee Westwood on a Sunday at Augusta.

Coaching can always make up for inferior talent.  Avoid fading the better coach…

4) I’m a Beast During Bowl Season

I was 60% this year during bowl season.  I was 73% when picking sides, but only 1-3 when picking totals.

However, there was a lot of bad luck involved there.  Four of my bowl losses were directly due to the starting QB being knocked out of the game.  While I will take 60% any year, we actually should have won a few more games.

I think the strength of bowl season comes down to sticking to the Bowl Game Rules I describe in my book:

Always look to fade teams that just lost their coach (Temple and USF).

Look to fade teams that lack motivation (Louisville and Michigan).

Look to play teams that are excited about the game (Miami and LSU).

5) Speed is a Difference Maker

People try to complicate things, but often it doesn’t need to be complicated.  Fast people are better at football than slow people.

Look at FSU and Michigan in the bowl game.  While it was a close game, anyone who watched it saw the team with the superior athletes was getting a TD.  While Michigan made it interesting at the end, the cover was never in doubt.

This was especially true in some of my losses this season.  Some examples:

Marshall + a zillion vs Louisville

BC +17 vs Clemson

SC +24 vs Clemson

Be very careful when fading a team that can just overwhelm an opponent with speed and athletic ability.  It doesn’t take much finesse to run a go route.  A receiver who runs a 4.4 will always beat a corner that runs a 4.6.  This is how blowouts happen, and the favorite can cover any number in this scenario.

6) Focus

I did not spend as much time handicapping games this year as I had in the past.  To be honest, by the time football season started I was spent.

I had written and published my book which is a shit-ton of work.  I had developed a site, and was trying to sell T-shirts.  It took a lot to get the Fishy Five off the ground, and I didn’t spend as much time as I probably needed to handicapping games.

I am going to approach this off-season smarter.  I am going to step away for a month or two to take a break.  I will make sure the batteries are completely recharged before next season.  There is no substitute for hard work, and there are definitely no short-cuts in the betting game…

7) I will Stay True to My Roots

It was a tough year without a doubt.  There are some facts that always, ALWAYS hold true over the long run.  They are the house always wins, and the public always loses.

The public got the best of Vegas this year.  65% of favorites won when favored by 6 or more points.  That is the highest percentage of big faves covering in over 25 years.

Hell, if you would have bet the two most popular NFL teams (Dallas and New England) and faded the three shittiest teams (SF, Cle and LA) you would have won 74% of your games.

For context, the winner of the Las Vegas Supercontest ‘only’ won 66% of his games to win almost $900k.

This year was an anomaly.  If you don’t believe it; be prepared to get your teeth kicked in next season.

As for me, I am not going to change my strategy.  I may tweak it a bit, but if you always look to tail the best teams and look to fade the worst you will lose a lot of money.

I am going to continue to look for plays that provide situational value.  That is how you win long term, even if it doesn’t work out for a season.

I appreciate you being along for the ride this year.  I have some really exciting things in the works for next season.  My goal is to make fishyfive.com a prime resource for handicapping games. I can’t wait to share my plans with you.

Finally, if you enjoyed the site this year, think about picking up a shirt or two.  I just had the new designs printed, and I am sure my wife would appreciate getting a few of them out of the house.  Click on the image below to check them out.

USE THE COUPON CODE MUSBURGER TO GET 25% OFF!  The coupon expires on Saturday, March 4, 2017.

 

 

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.
To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 21 Fishy Five Picks 2016 – SUPER BOWL

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 20 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

Here are our Week 21 Fishy Five Picks:
The Fishy Five went 1-1 last week.  That makes us 50-56-5 on the year for 47.1%.
This season reminds me of my first date.
After weeks of being a candy ass, I finally worked up the nerve to ask out the most popular girl in high school.  Amazingly, she said yes.
The morning of our date, I woke up with a zit on my chin.  It wasn’t one of those little guys that you can pop and it would go away.  It was a big, creamy bastard that had its own pulse.  It hurt like hell and looked worse than felt.
So I had the genius idea that I was going to clean it like nobody’s business, and that would help it clear up faster and go away.
So I got a wash rag, and I scrubbed it good and I scrubbed it hard.  And I scrubbed it right off my face.  The only thing that was left was a rub burn the size of a quarter on my freaking chin where the zit used to be.  I showed it who was boss though…
That is exactly the same thing that happened this season.  We had a solid game plan and a pretty face, but had a huge zit that blemished everything.  That zit was the New England Patriots.
I bet against them early and often this year, and did not win a single time.  If I would have avoided them completely, I would have had a winning season.
I can’t bring myself to play them as I just don’t see it.  I think Atlanta is the better team and vastly underrated.  But I’m not betting against New England again. As such, I am making no play on the Super Bowl.
And really, when you sit down and think about it, the Super Bowl is amateur hour.  Every grandma out there is making prop bets.  We all have our Super Bowl squares and viewing parties.  The Super Bowl has turned into an event, not a ball game where sharp bettors can capitalize on soft lines.
Some thoughts though:
If you reference my book – you will realize the underdog is 7-3 in the last 10 Super Bowls and 12-5 with 2 pushes in the last 20.  In the last 10 years, the dog has won outright 5 of those times.
ATL is only getting 33% of the bets according to Sports Insights, but the line hasn’t moved.  Very interesting…
I think both wins in the conference championship games skew public opinion on both teams.  ATL won in dominate fashion, but they played a worn-out opponent.  New England won in dominant fashion, but that only happened after Pittsburgh’s best player (Lavion Bell) got knocked out of game.  With Bell in the game Pitt had no problems moving the ball.
You have one team that is new to the big dance and the other that prides itself on defense.  You have to figure New England is going to play ball control to keep the ball out of the hands of ATL’s offense.  You have to figure ATL will be tight with being on the big stage for the first time in a long time.  And with a big total, that screams under to me.
Once upon a time I read a great article on prop bets.  I wish I would have kept a copy.  Essentially, it said the public loves to bet on something to happen.  The books know this, and skew the lines that way.  Sharp bettors always bet against things happening.  That means the sharper play is typically under the total on props.  Thinking logically, the Julio Jones under 7.5 catches is probably a smart bet.  Everyone in the world will be pounding that over.  You have to figure NE will do everything they can to make sure he doesn’t beat them (similar to what they did with Antonio Brown last week).  It will be very scary, but is probably a smart play.
If you put a gun to my head and forced me to bet this week, I’d probably pick Atlanta and the under.  But like I said, I will not be making a play unless a great in-game opportunity presents itself.
I appreciate you for following this season.  I have big plans in store for the site for next season.  I am still finalizing my thoughts, and I will bounce them off you sometime the next several weeks to see what you think.

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.
To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 20 Fishy Five Picks 2016

week-20-fishy-five

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 20 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

The Fishy Five went 1-1 last week.  That makes us 49-55-5 on the year for 47.1%.
I recently took my wife to a Garth Brooks concert.  It was a great time.  Everyone knew the words to all his songs, and everyone was signing their hearts out.  Everyone except me…
I stood there, and enjoyed the music.
Halfway through the show Garth brought his old lady on stage to sing – Trisha Yearwood.
Of course, I knew all the words to her songs after years of dating southern girls.  So I belted them out unlike any middle-aged men I know.  I was singing about chickens pecking the ground and al that.  It was a sight to be seen.
My wife looked at me a little funny, as did the poor people sitting around us, but then they got it.  Here was a guy bucking convention, and was having the time of his life.  Here was a guy who had it all figured out, and had about 8 Coors Lights in him to boot.  It is easy to go along with the crowd and sing “Friends in Low Places”.  It takes big balls for a guy to sing “She’s in Love with the Boy”.
That is how we have to play this week.  The public will be zigging, but we will be zagging.  We are going to be confident, we are going to believe our eyes and what we know to be true.  I’m really excited about the picks for this week.

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Here are our Week 20 Fishy Five Picks:
ATL -5 vs Green Bay
This game gives me strange boners that I should not be getting from large men in tights.  I haven’t liked an NFL game this much all season.  Here is why:
  1. The public has won 9 straight big games vs Vegas the past two weeks (8 NFL playoff games and the Clemson game).JoePub doesn’t win every freaking week.And now we have 33% of the public on Atlanta, but the line has moved from -4 to -5?Since the betting is pretty split on the NE/Pitt game, this is their best chance to take a bite out of the public.They will.
  2. The media is ALL OVER Aaron Rodgers’ nut sack. I haven’t seen anything like it in a long time.Just today I have heard that he is the Michael Jordan (who is a douche dick) of QBs.I also heard that he is a top 3 QB of all time.Give me a freaking break.He may not even be a top 3 QB in the NFL right now.Hell, he may not even be the 3rd best QB left in the playoffs!When the media builds up a player this big, it is inevitable they won’t meet expectations.I can’t wait to hear talk radio discuss his loss next week.
  3. This is Green Bay’s third road game in the last four weeks or a team that is decimated by injury.  Also, they have played 16 straight weeks since their bye.  Their secondary got even more beat up vs Dallas if that was even possible.They have a WR playing RB.Their stud LT got banged up.This isn’t a healthy team.
  4. In the Wild Card game GB was DOMINATED by NY in the first half.The Hail Mary rattled NY and they never recovered.It was a nice playoff win, but let’s not get carried away with beating the Giants.
  5. Last week it took a miracle set of circumstances for GB to beat Dallas.First off, they caught a Dallas team that slept-walked through the first 25 minutes of the game.Looking back it should have been easy to predict that as Dallas didn’t play the last week of the season and then had the playoff bye.That is a long lay-off for a team that relies on rookies at key positions.Dallas had idiotic penalties, coaching blunders and red zone turnovers.GB had some fluky shit break their way too.How about the fumbled handoff that landed directly in the RBs arms?Or Rodgers getting creamed on the last drive and not fumbling?The only way Dallas was stopped on offense is when Dallas stopped Dallas.The bounces of the football tend to eventually even out.
  6. This is the worst possible matchup for a shit GB defense.Atlanta’s offense is for real.They can run it or throw it.They made a good Seattle D look terrible.If rookie Dak Prescott can look that good in his first playoff game vs a defense that KNEW he had to throw it to catch up, think of how good Matty Ice is going to look…
  7. This will be the last home game for Atlanta in the Georgia Dome.They are getting a new stadium next year.Not only is Atlanta tits in the dome, think about the extra edge they will have to shut the place down the right way and then go to the Super Bowl?
  8. What killed Dallas vs GB is they could get absolutely no pass rush in the first half.Atlanta doesn’t have that problem as they have two emerging DEs.They also have a defensive minded coach who will give Green Bay fits.I can’t overstate the importance of Dan Quinn.He is experienced and successful coaching defenses in big games as he was the DC in Seattle for several years.He will have his team prepared for Green Bay.
  9. Atlanta is not a big market team, and they haven’t gotten the respect they deserve.They have been great for two months now.Playing just incredible ball.And no one seems to notice or care.They will play with a chip on their shoulder this week because all they hear on TV is how great GB and Rodgers is.I love it when I’m getting the better team that feels slighted.
Atlanta is going to win this one by double digits.  I am so excited about this one I have a tingle in my plums.  I already got -4 and will be getting more at -5.
Pitt +6 @ New England
I am not as wild about this one as I am Atlanta, but I still think it is a very solid play.
Believe your eyes.
New England struggled with Houston.  Houston plays good D, but has no O whatsoever.  That is not a good football team, and they gave NE fits.  It was very concerning how poorly the OL played.  Sure Houston is good on defense – but they completely whiffed on numerous blocks.  If they can’t block for Brady, then NE is vulnerable.
Also, let’s look at the game a little closer.  NE did win by a significant margin, but 7 of those points were on a kickoff return for TD.  Also, ironically the best ball Brock Osweiler has ever thrown was dropped in the end zone which would have been a touchdown.  If those two plays swing the other way, then it is a very tight game and everyone is looking at New England a little differently this week.
Let’s not forget that NE hasn’t beaten anyone this year.  The AFC East was very weak.  They did beat Pittsburgh early in the season, but that was with Landry Jones at QB.  I think their weak schedule and Hall of Fame QB and coach are masking a pretty average roster and team.
Pittsburgh really impressed me last week.  They got inside the KC 30 on their seven of their first eight drives of the game.  The dominated in yardage.  They obviously had trouble punching it in the end zone, but I don’t think that will be as big a problem this week as NE’s defense is not as good as KCs.
They also beat Andy Reid coming off a bye.  That alone is worth noting.  Even though the score was close, it was an impressive win.
Pittsburgh has also been playing much better on D after putting Harrison in the starting lineup.  He gives Pittsburgh the emotional edge that they need to be successful on defense.
When you look at it critically, which position group for NE’s is better than Pittsburgh’s?  Secondary maybe?  Pitt’s OL is better.  Their WRs are better.  Their RB is much better.  Their DL is better.  Their LBs are better.  QBs I would call a wash at this stage of Brady’s career – but could give an edge to Ben due to Pitt’s WRs and Gronk being out.  The only big difference is the HC difference – which I admit is significant.
I know a cardinal rule is you don’t bet against Belichek in NE, especially in the playoffs.  But to hell with that.  I see this game as a coin flip at worst.  It would not shock me at all to see Pittsburgh win straight up.  It would shock me if they don’t keep it within 6 points.
Good luck this week!
To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.
To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 19 Fishy Five Picks 2016

week-19-fishy-five

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 19 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

The Fishy Five went 3-2 last week in the NFL and finished our bowl season at 9-6.  That makes us 48-52-5 on the year for 48%.
It is nice to have a few winning weeks in a row now, but we were painfully unlucky recently.  We lost 8 games total this past week – and in 6 of those games the starting QB was knocked out of the game.
The Pitt QB was knocked out which cost us that side and the over.  Stanford’s QB was knocked out costing us the over.  Auburn’s QB was knocked out which eliminated their chance of being competitive.  Houston’s QB got knocked out making the game meaningless for Houston.  And Oakland’s QB got knocked out and was replaced by a 3rd string rookie.  Just terrible luck.
Regardless, it is playoff time and time to chip away and get over 500.
Small card this week as there aren’t many games to choose from.  Remember that just because the game is on doesn’t mean you have to play it…

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Here are our Week 19 Fishy Five Picks:
NY Giants +4.5 @ GB
This one is a pretty simple game to handicap.  Defense wins in the playoffs.  The Giants have a good defense.  They have shown it twice by beating the best team in the NFL Dallas (and it pains me to say that).  GB’s secondary is a train wreck with injuries.  Even before the injuries though they have been bad.
Here is how it will play out:  It will be colder than a polar bears two hole, but both teams will have to pass because neither can run it.  GB will be throwing into NY’s very good secondary.  NY will be throwing to the best WR in the game vs practice team guys.  It is a complete mismatch.
I also love the motivation angle on this game.  The media is making a big deal out of the Giants WRs partying in South Beach with Jonny Football.  They are calling the players out as undisciplined and not dedicated to the game.  Don’t you think they will play with a chip on their shoulder – especially when they are the key position group in this game?
I know some of you are worried about the mystique of Lambeau – but Eli is 2-0 at Lambeau in the playoffs.  Both times he went on to win the Super Bowl.  Eli is also 6-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs and 5-1 straight up.
I love that we are getting 4.5 points here.  Wouldn’t shock me at all if GB shits their pants and it freezes on their legs.
Alabama -6 vs Clemson
I see this line is teetering between 6 and 6.5.  I got it at 6, but still like it at 6.5.
This is your classic buy low, sell high situation.  And for the record I hope I’m completely wrong and Clemson wins this one straight up.  I’m an ACC guy through and through, and would love to see Clemson win.
Clemson is at the highest point in their programs history since winning the national championship in the early 80s.  They neutered Ohio State (which we called by the way) scoring the shut out.  That win has DRAMATICALLY skewed public perception of this team.
The fact of the matter is while Ohio State is very talented, but they are a year away from being a top 5 team.  They had to replace their entire team this year.  They had a senior QB and kids everywhere else.  It was an amazing job by Meyer that they were even in this position.  Games often snow-ball on young teams, and this game did on Ohio State.  Ohio State was not that bad, but more importantly Clemson is not that good.
When I think of Clemson, I can’t help but think of the NC State game.  NC State physically dominated that game.  They beat Clemson up on both lines, and would have beat Clemson had our kicker not missed a chip shot FG as time expired.
And this is the part of the program where I compare NC State football to Alabama football.
Alabama also plays a very physical style of football.  Like NC State, they will be able to control the game.  Unlike NC State, they will not barf all over themselves at the key moment of the game.  It is the worst possible matchup for a Clemson team that is more finesse than smash mouth.
And again, defense wins championships.  This Alabama defense is one of the best in recent college football history.  They have feasted on turning turnovers into points, and while Watson is the best QB in college football he does turn it over a lot.
They have beaten the piss out of everyone except Ole Miss in week 3.  They completely shut down a very good Washington team last week and are getting no credit for it.
In fact, people are complaining about their offense and of course there is the Lane Kiffin situation.  Both will lead to the offense coming out inspired and giving it their best effort.
Buy low on Bama.  This game should be close for a while, but eventually Bama will wear them down and win by about 10 or so.
And in my next book – I will write a chapter titled “Always Bet Bama if You are Giving Less Than a TD.”  In true hater fashion though, I will open the chapter with a story of where I was during the Auburn Kick Six.  It involves a 7 iron, marshmallows and a wonderful angel named Heather..  Now that is a good story.
Good luck to all this week!                                                                                           

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.

To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 18 Fishy Five Picks 2016

week-18-fishy-five

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 18 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

The Fishy Five went 4-1 last week in the NFL and 1-0 in Bowl games. That makes us 37-44-5 on the year for 45.6%.

It has been a rough season for sharp bettors and a rough season for Vegas. Prior to this weekend, Vegas had lost in 7 straight weeks on the NFL. That is unheard of, but that is what happens when the scrubs don’t cover and the power teams cover every week.

Somewhere out there is a college kid who thinks he has sports betting all figured out. He has taken New England and Dallas every week, and faded LA, Cleveland and SF every week. I congratulate that kid on a great season, but hope he realizes that Vegas doesn’t hand out free money. There will be short term anomalies, but in the end the house always wins.

The sports betting game is tough. You have to know when to be bold and know when to pick your spots. It reminds me a little of my recent trip to Disney World.

I have a bunch of young kids which I am too old to have. Going to Disney is a right of passage for both child and parent, so we recently made the trip.

Of course we spared no expense. The little girls got princess makeovers and the boy got Jedi Training. It was a good time.

The highlight though was dinner in Cinderella’s Castle.

As I sat down I got a text from my buddy Jimbo. I told him I can’t talk now, I am eating dinner with Cinderella. He explains to me that any minute princesses will be coming out of the wood work and that if I don’t get a picture with Arial I don’t have a hair of my ass. We both have a thing for redheads from our college days…

Of course then he started a group text with all our buddies which took the challenge to a whole new level. I timidly accepted their challenge because that is the type of man I am.

Sure enough, Arial eventually comes around. We get a picture of her with the kids. Then we get a picture of her with the kids and with Dad.

Then I tell everyone, “ok – now a picture with just Dad and Arial.”

The world stopped. It was like the scene in Animal House when they walked into the black bar.

Arial looked at me like I was a creeper. The wife gave me the ‘you done f’d up now’ look. The kids were confused as to why Daddy wanted a picture with Arial.

So I meekly said, “just kidding” and a freaked out Arial scurried away as fast as her flipper could move her.

So it didn’t work out, and I let my buddies down. The most important thing is I knew it was the right thing to do. Having a picture of me and Arial is something I would have cherished forever, only to be topped by a picture of me and Mandy Moore.

Sure, I don’t have either of those pictures. But I do have a picture of me and Brent Musburger. And Uncle Brent would be proud that I stuck it out there a little bit and took a chance. Because those are the guys who succeed in life. Those guys always come out ahead, even if they are down on their luck for a little bit.

With all that being said, I hope you take a chance and it works out for you. Life is a lot richer that way…

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Here are our Week 18 Fishy Five Picks:

Jacksonville +4.5 @ Indy

This game has the type of reverse line action we love. 70% of the public is on Indy, but the line has gone down from 7 to 4.5. Vegas needs the Jags, and I want to be on Vegas’ side.

Don’t forget that Jax has already beat Indy once this season. Jax has also been playing good ball the past few weeks – beating the piss out of a very decent Tennessee team and nearly beating a decent Houston team the week before that.

Indy is not a good football team. They have a rock star QB, but little talent elsewhere on the roster.

Their strength is their passing game, but that plays into Jax’s strength as Jax is a top 10 defense vs the pass. Indy also has to have lost their mojo a little bit after last week’s loss has knocked them out of playoff contention.

Love Jax here to keep it close.

Minnesota -5 vs Chicago

Holy hell Minnesota has cost me a lot of money this year. I have faded them at the wrong time and tailed them at the wrong time. We are going to try to get them right one more time…

This Minnesota team is a prideful bunch. They had visions of a Super Bowl run before everything turned to shit. They have been pushed around the past few weeks, especially on defense.
I expect them to come out and play good ball to end the season on a high note.

And Chicago is a freaking mess. Barkley is not an NFL QB, and with a month of film on him a very good Vikings defense is going to eat him up. Chicago is still the most injury riddled team outside of San Diego.

I think Minny plays inspired at home to finish the season strong, and Chicago plays just to finish the season. This one smells like a blowout to me.

Houston +3 @ Tennessee

With Houston we are getting the #1 defense vs a team that just had their playoff bubble burst and is starting a backup QB? And we are getting a FG to boot? That is freaking insane.

Now, I know the concern is Houston has the #4 spot in the playoffs locked up and the game is essentially meaningless. That isn’t quite the case though.

For a deep playoff run, Houston has to get their offense working and get Savage some quality work at QB. Also, they have several players returning from injury on D, and they need to get those guys some reps as well. This is a team that needs to find something before playoff time, because Jacksonville isn’t walking through that door…

While I like Tennessee a lot this year, they have to be very deflated. Their playoff hopes were crushed last week. Their QB who was having such a promising season ended with a broken leg. This has to be a down team, and I expect it to show vs Houston.

Houston wins this one straight up in a close one.

Oakland +1.5 @ Denver

Great reverse line action on this one. The line has moved from +3.5 to +1.5 despite 33% of the public on Oakland.

Obviously the concern with Oakland is Matt McGloin, their new starting QB. And that is a legit concern. But look at the talent he has around him. He has a stud OL. Dymanic WRs and a beast of a RB. He has everything around him to be successful, including a team that wants him to succeed before their playoff run. Let’s also not forget that Oakland will be supremely motivated with the chance to lock up the #2 seed and a bye for the playoffs.

Denver is a freaking mess. They have lost 3 straight, and haven’t really moved the ball in any of those games. Now they are starting Paxton Lynch, and there is a reason he has ridden the pine all season behind Semen. That reason is he isn’t as good.

So Denver is a deflated team, putting a rookie QB in the lineup that isn’t ready and who is actually worse than their season-long starter who couldn’t score…

And as good as Denver’s defense is, they can’t stop the run worth dick. I am fairly confident Oakland will pound the ball to take the pressure off their new QB.

Oakland wins this one straight up in a low-scoring affair.

New Orleans +6.5 @ Atlanta

I’m a fan of this Atlanta team. They are fun to watch and I hope they make a run in the playoffs. Everyone thinks they are world-beaters right now, but let’s look a little closer at their recent success.

They lost to KC in a fluke game. I’m not a fan of KC at all for the record.

Then they beat the piss out of LA and SF. Thank you NFL for giving Atlanta an SEC schedule with cupcakes late in the season.

Last week they beat Carolina. The score was not indicative of the game though. Carolina scored a TD at the end of the 3rd to cut ATL’s lead to 23-13. Then they forced ATL into a 3rd and 21. They had the MO, and if they got the ball back they would have a game. Instead, they blow a coverage and ATL converts. On the next play ATL scores on a TD against some of the weakest effort I have ever seen by a NFL defense.

The point is a defeated Carolina team missing their best player (Kuechly) gave ATL a game.

Unlike Carolina, New Orleans is trying to finish their season strong. They beat Arizona in Arizona, and beat Tampa Bay the last two weeks. Those are nice wins.

Brees (still not a winner) has been playing great and is obviously great in a dome. Gimme Brees and almost a TD as this game will be closer than what everyone thinks…

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.

To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 17 Fishy Five Picks 2016

week-16-fishy-five

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 17 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

From December 21:

The Fishy Five went 2-3 last week. We are 32-43-5 on the year for 42.6%.

Joe Public had another great week last week. We highlighted 11 games with decidedly public action, and the public went 7-4. The public has gotten the better of Vegas for quite a few weeks in a row now.

No story this week since I gave one with my bowl picks. We are playing a lot of games the next two weeks. Time to save our season…

Also, I want to give a shout out to my good friend Tasha from UNC. I didn’t get a chance to bet UNC this year (outside the over in the bowl game which I love), but hopefully my subtle UNC references this week will make good on our deal…

final2

BUY HERE

Here are our Week 17 Fishy Five Picks:

Atlanta -2.5 @ Carolina

This is a terrible matchup & situation for the Panthers. They are coming off a short week and emotional win. The public will overestimate them as a result. They face an Atlanta team that is great throwing the ball. Stopping the pass is Carolina’s weakness, despite having Tre Boston at safety from UNC. Atlanta also does a good job rushing the QB. The OL is Carolina’s other weakness.

Atlanta has had two tune-up games vs STL and SF the past two weeks, destroying both. I think they will give the best effort as they know they are close to closing out the division.

Washington -3.5 @ Chicago

I love how Chicago has been playing. Since Barkley entered the lineup they almost beat Tennessee and then covered in 3 straight. The fact remains that this team is decimated by injury and is starting their 3rd string QB. Teams don’t cover every week with backups. Especially teams trying to get in a good draft spot to draft Mitch Trabisky from UNC.

On the flip side Washington has put themselves in a must-win spot after laying an egg on Monday night. Washington does have weapons in the skill positions, making this a terrible matchup for a depleted Chicago back seven. I think we see a desperate Washington team that plays pissed after mailing it in on Monday.

Minnesota +6.5 @ GB

I have been a hater of Green Bay for a long time now. You can’t deny they have been playing great ball lately as they have been winners of 4 straight. You have to give a lot of credit for that streak to Julius Peppers from UNC. And Minnesota is in the opposite situation after getting dominated by Indianapolis last weekend.

I love how Zimmer called out the team for being soft after the game. Like Washington, I think they come out pissed and looking to rebound. They know their season is on the brink, and win here is critical to making the playoffs.

It is simply too many points vs a team that plays outstanding defense. I expect Minnesota to dust off the Dallas game plan and make this a slow, ball-control game. AP may even turn into a factor. All of that will make 6.5 just too many points.

Oakland -3.5 vs Indianapolis

This is a great buy-low, sell-high spot. Indianapolis is coming off a huge road win vs Minnesota. Oakland is coming off a so-so performance vs San Diego and a very public loss to Kansas City.

The fact remains that Indianapolis does not have a talented roster outside the QB. It has been a long time since Jeff Saturday from UNC was snapping the ball to Peyton Manning. Oakland is talented everywhere. Oakland also needs a win this week to stay in front of KC in the division race.

Fade Indy in their second roadie in a row.

Arizona +8 @ Seattle

8 points? Are you kidding me?

Seattle has major issues on the offensive line and in the secondary with Earl Thomas out. If there is one team in the NFL that can expose those deficiencies it is Arizona.

In their first game this year, they tied 6 to 6. I see no reason why this won’t be another low-scoring game with Seattle’s issues on offense. Also, Arizona has major talent on defense, like LB Kareem Martin of UNC.

I will gladly take more than a TD in a game that could prove to be low-scoring.

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.

To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Fishy Five Bowl Picks 2016

bowls-fishy-five

Below are my Fishy Five picks for the Bowl  Season. My regular picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

From December 19:

I love bowl season with its endless games and betting opportunities. It is also the best time of year for a situational bettor as it is pretty easy to identify teams that are excited about their bowl game and teams that are just playing out the string.

Several years ago NC State was playing in the Papa John’s Bowl. A group of about ten of us attended.

In the stadium concourse we saw a line of people getting free beer from a keg. All of a sudden the prestige of the Papa John’s Bowl went way up in our eyes.

I was about 5 people back when stadium security came up and said that no one could get beer from this keg unless someone was there checking IDs.

Everyone dispersed disappointed. Everyone except my buddy Jonboy (the rabbit killer) and I.
I went to a nearby concession stand stole two aprons.

Jonboy and I returned to the keg and started selling beer. He checked IDs and collected $5 a beer. I poured.

We got about 50 beers out of the keg before it went dry. Not too shabby, until stadium security showed back up.

They asked what we were doing. We said that they instructed us that no one could get beer out of the keg unless someone checked IDs. So as good citizens we were checking.

He was pissed. He was an older guy without a sense of humor. He threatened to have us arrested, but instead just threw us out of the game.

No big deal though, as we found scalped tickets for 5 bucks each and got back into the game.
That is what we are looking for this bowl season. There are opportunities to profit by being smarter than the general public. We just have to be bold enough to take a chance.

Here are our 2016 Fishy Five Bowl Picks:

Auburn +3 vs Oklahoma – Sugar Bowl

Remember the Rule of Auburn Football – they are shit when you expect them to be good, and great when you don’t expect anything out of them.

Auburn is really excited to be in this game – they actually lobbied hard to get an invite. It was a great bounce back year for the program. Just as importantly, they are finally 100% healthy.

Oklahoma is dealing with a mess with the Mixon issue. They have sucked out of conference this year (lost to Ohio State at home and got housed by an average Houston team).

We have great reverse line movement in this game. The line opened at 5.5, but dropped to 3 with only 31% of the public on the Tigers. I love Auby here. War Damn Eagle.

USC -6.5 vs Penn State – Rose Bowl

Penn State is a great story. They should have represented the B10 in the Final 4. My Mom was a Penn State cheerleader, so I have deep PSU ties. But they are walking into a buzz saw this game.

While they had a nice season, they really only have two quality wins – Wisconsin and Ohio State. The OSU win was fluky due to the blocked kick. Wisconsin was a nice win, but that team had flaws.

Southern Cal stumbled out of the gate at 1-3, changed their QB and have been on fire since then.

This team probably beats everyone but Bama if he was starting all season. I think they will be extremely motivated to show that USC football is back in this game. It is a home game for them, and it is PSU’s first big Bowl in years. They will be shell-shocked by the moment. I like USC by 10 here.

Clemson +3 vs Ohio State – Fiesta Bowl

I love Clemson here. Clemson shows up for big games, and wins most of them. They have now for several seasons. They are a very experienced team as most are seniors or juniors who are going to go pro.

Ohio State is not impressive. Down the stretch they were dominated by Michigan (the 4th and 1 call was ludicrous) and only beat a putrid Michigan State team by 1. They are a fraud to even be in this position.

Ohio State is also very young. They were in Clemson’s position last year with a very old and experienced team, but all those guys are gone.

The wrong team is favored here. Take the points.

LSU -3 vs Louisville – Citrus Bowl

This is a great matchup for LSU. LSU will be emotionally invested due to Orgeron’s first game as head coach. Fournette is out because he is a pansy, but the there isn’t a huge drop off with the backup.

Louisville faded down the stretch, getting their doors blown off by Houston and losing to Kentucky. They had visions of a much bigger season, but those ended in Houston. On top of that, Jackson winning the Heisman is a distraction, as is half the secondary getting shot (literally).

One team will be supremely focused, the other will be disappointed. Take the Tigers.

FSU +7 vs Michigan – Orange Bowl

This one is a hard one to figure out. I am not sure if either of these teams are as good as we think they are. Michigan stumbled home down the stretch. FSU’s only wins of note were Ole Miss in week 1 and UF in the last week.

Like Louisville above, Michigan had sights on a bigger bowl. FSU has a younger team that will be excited to play in Miami.

I think FSU has the emotional edge in this one. I also think they probably have the superior athletes. I like how they didn’t show up in last’s years bowl game when they got housed by Houston. I think they will be a lot more focused this time around.

This game should be closer to a pick than a TD. I’ll gladly take 7 and sit back and see what happens.

Air Force -13 vs South Bama – Arizona Bowl

This has blowout city written all over it.

AF got hosed in the bowl selection. They are 9-3 with wins over Boise State and Navy. They are damn good. And here is the thing about a bunch of soon-to-be lieutenants – they won’t sit and sulk like a bunch of bitches (and 98% of the rest of d1) because they got jobbed. That is life. They are going to be focused and take the fight to their opponent – because that is what they are supposed to do.

For their efforts they get rewarded with South Alabama. South Alabama is 6-6, and squeaked into a bowl by beating something called Nicholls by 1 and Presbyterian. I am not impressed.

S Bama is 98th in rush D vs a pretty weak schedule. The only triple option team they faced was GA Southern, and they ran for 300+ yards in a blowout win. AF averages 322 yards rushing a game for 4th in the nation.

This is going to be an ass kicking of epic proportions, and then these kids will go defend your freedom. Lay a bet on them, then buy a serviceman a beer next time you see one in the airport…

South Carolina +10.5 vs USF – Birmingham Bowl

USF had a very nice season. 10-2 with some nice wins sprinkled in there. I am not knocking that squad one bit as they have a lot of talent.

What I hate about this spot for them is they just lost their head coach Willie Taggert. The players really loved him, and you have to wonder how they will respond without him.

South Carolina, on the other hand, is in rebuild mode. They had to beat Tennessee and Missouri down the stretch to become bowl eligible. They are going to be thrilled to be going bowling in Muschamp’s first year.

I think it is a good matchup on paper for USC too. They play good D – allowing only 24 points a game in the SEC. South Florida does not, as they give up 31 a game in a weaker conference. It looks like strength on strength on both sides of the ball, and when that happens I always favor the defense.

Gimme 10.5 as that is just too much scratch.

KSU +2 vs Texas A&M – Texas Bowl

We have good line movement in this game, as it was gone from 2.5 to 2 despite the public on A&M. We also have the better coach in Bill Synder.

We have a KSU team that is getting better. Their only loss since Oct 15 was a close loss to a good OK State team. We also have an A&M team that has tanked. They are winless since beating Tennessee on Oct 8 (wins vs NM State and Tex San Antonio don’t count).

The wrong team is favored here. Take Synder as a dog because he is the best dog coach in NCAA history.

Miami -3 vs WVU – Russel Athletic Bowl

We have great reverse line movement in this one. The pub is on WVU, but the line has moved from -1 to -3. We have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, which is always a head scratcher.
I think this is a statement game for Mark Richt heading into his first off-season as Miami’s coach. They have won four straight convincingly, and play outstanding defense. I like them in a low-scoring game.

Wake +11.5 vs Temple — Military Bowl

This is horrendous spot for Temple. They play in the exact same stadium as their last game – their conference championship game vs Navy. They are getting a lot of street cred for pounding Navy, but that was without Navy’s QB and FB. Hell – Army beat Navy with those guys missing. I am not impressed.

On top of that, Temple has covered in something dumb like 11 straight. That doesn’t last forever.

On top of that, they lost their head coach.

On top of that, there is awful reverse line movement indicating the sharps love the Deacs. It was bet down from 14 to 11.5 despite the pub being all over Temple.

On top of that, Bill Cosby is a rapist. It is just an awful spot for the Owls.

Wake on the other hand has to feel slighted that one of their own sold them out with the playbook scandal. I think they will play with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

They are a young team, and making a bowl actually means something. While they are still Wake, they do play decent defense. They won’t be shocked playing a good team either as they have played NC State, FSU, Louisville and Clemson this year.

I think they have a huge motivational edge here, and will give Temple all they can handle.

Pitt -5.5 vs Northwestern — Pinstripe Bowl

Pitt can play when motivated. They beat Penn State and Clemson this year. Their issue is they really don’t stress playing defense. We’ll get to that in a minute.

Here is the #1 reason I like this game – James Conner. He is the star tailback for Pitt, and he is a cancer survivor. I look for QBs making their final game in a bowl because I love to back them. I look at this as the same situation. The team will be emotionally up for sending Conner out a winner. He will have a huge game – I guess 3 TDs. That is all the edge we need.

GT/UK Over 61

What is this? A total play? You’re damn right. The general rule is always take a triple option team to go over in a bowl game. Not sure why, but it always seems to cash. Add to the equation that UK doesn’t play a lick of D and this one goes way over the total.

Stanford/UNC Over 54.5

This is a great situation for a total. UNC likes to play fast and always gets their points. I expect UNC’s O to show up as it will probably be the last game for several key contributors including the QB and RB. UNC has trouble defending physical teams. That is exactly what you have in Stanford. Love that we are getting a low total. Hate that McAffrey isn’t playing – what a bitch. This one goes way over.

Pitt/NW Over 65

Pitt doesn’t even consider playing defense, but can score in bunches. This one goes easily over the total.

AF/USA over 57.5

AF may get this one by themselves. It is just a terrible matchup for USA. The triple option comment is doubled when the Force is wearing their shark helmets. Probably the best look in college football.

The big bowl card is exactly what we need this time of year. I hope everyone has a profitable holiday. Be sure to check my twitter @fishy_five as I will post my in game plays during the bowl season.

 

final2

BUY HERE

 

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.

To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 16 Fishy Five Picks 2016

week-15-fishy-five

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 16 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

From December 14:

The Fishy Five went 1-3-1 last week. We are 30-40-5 on the year for 42.9%.

You are what your record says you are…

I am really bad.

I won’t try to sugarcoat it or explain it. It has been a complete shit-show around here lately.
Time to go back to basics.

With sports betting – there are two truths that always, always, always hold true. Scared money is dead money, and the public never wins.

I’ll be real honest right now, my confidence is at an all-time low. The type of ass beating I have taken over the past month will do that to a guy. I need to go back to the days of being the Landshark…

Back in college, I was 170lbs, and most of that was hair. I also had the most ferocious farmer’s tan you have ever seen due to spending too much time on the golf course and not enough time in the classroom.

But when my frat would have a party, things would change. I would morph into the Landshark.

Now, as the Landshark I had certain qualities that made me a crowd favorite. Boundless energy and confidence were my trademarks. I didn’t just become the life of the party, I was the damn party.

At 11:11 exactly (because I’m #1) the regulars at our parties would start the Jaws chant. Da Dunt. Da Dunt. Da Dunt…

Then all eyes would fix on me.

I would crack open a beer, and chug it straight to a roaring ovation. Then, in the middle of the damn party, I would strip completely naked. I would tuck a cardboard shark fin in my butt crack, and 4 guys would race me though the party holding me high. I was the friggin’ Landshark and I didn’t have a care in the world.

And on special occasions. On very special occasions, I was the Flaming Landshark! I’d light the fin on fire before making my victory lap around the house…

This week – I’m a Landshark again. Confident. Bold. Little pecker flapping in the wind and completely vulnerable. But also, I’m surrounded by friends. And you and I are going to get through this together come hell or high water.

So we are confident. Time to make some good decisions.

Here’s a little stat for you. Last Sunday, teams that got over 60% of the spread tickets went 7-2 against the spread. The squares had a good week. As we know though, the public always loses. This will be a regression to the mean week. A week for the sharps. A week for the Landsharks.

So this week, we are only considering teams that are getting less than 40% of the spread action. That leaves us the games below to pick from. Also included are my concerns with each of these teams…

Jets +2.5 (37%) vs Miami – OMG the Jets suck. I know Miami is starting their backup QB, but so are the Jets. Scary, scary, scary.

Jax +6 (26%) @ Houston – We bet Jax last week vs Minnesota, and they were covering until about 2 minutes left in the game. That being said, it wasn’t that close as Minny fumbled on the goal line and didn’t convert on a 4th and Goal.

Cleveland +10 (31%) @ Buffalo – You know they are winless right? They haven’t even sniffed a cover in weeks. They are like me.

Philly +6 (26%) @ Baltimore – Philly is dogshit on the road. They are regressing in every area.

San Fran +14 (20%) @ ATL – They are just so bad. So disgustingly bad.

Denver +3 (23%) vs NE – NE ran the ball down Baltimore’s #1 rated run defense’s throats. Denver’s run D isn’t good.

Tennessee +5.5 (33%) @ KC – Do I really want to lose to Andy Reid again? I fade them every week. Plus they are on a long week after having the Thursday game last week.

Cincy +3 (20%) vs Pitt – Pitt is red hot, and Cincy is Cincy. At this point of the season, you know who you are, and Cincy isn’t very good.

NO +2.5 (27%) @ AZ – NO couldn’t move the ball on Tampa. How are they going to move it on Arizona?

SD +2.5 (25%) vs Oak – Gordon hurt. Bosa hurt. Rivers looks like Jay Cutler. Scary, scary, scary.

Dallas -7 (27%) vs TB – Dallas has struggled to move the ball the last 3 games. TB is playing great ball lately. No way do I want to lay that much scratch on a rookie QB who seems to be hitting the wall.

Here are our Week 16 Fishy Five Picks:

Tennessee +5.5 (33%) @ KC

Kansas City is such a joke. Recall our bet last week vs Oakland. KC scored 14 quickly. They then scored a TD on a punt return after Oakland had to re-punt in the 2nd. Then they were completely shut out the rest of the game. Not only that, Oakland had the ball 3 times in the red zone in the 2nd half and only came away with 3 points. KC is winning by smoke and mirrors, and that doesn’t last forever.

KC is also 4-5 ATS outside their division. They have already lost ATS to the Jags, Saints and TB at Arrowhead, and none of those teams are as good as Tennessee.

Tennessee on the other hand beat Denver last weekend. This came after a late bye which gives them a big advantage. Mariotta was dreadful, but the defense and running game were very good.

Here is the thing about this game though – Derrick Johnson blew out his achilles in the 2nd half vs Oakland. Without him, they cannot stop the run. Tennessee is a phenomenal run team. KC has lived off defensive and special teams scores. Mariotta doesn’t turn the ball over, and you know Tennessee will not give KC opportunities in the return game. This game will be slow, methodical, and probably extremely boring. That makes 5.5 extremely huge.

Finally, despite only 33% of the tickets on Tennessee, the line has moved from +6 to +5.5. This reverse line movements tell us the sharps like Tennessee this week, and we know the sharps are going
to have a good week.

NO +2.5 (27%) @ AZ

What we have here are two average teams with lots of problems.

Arizona is a mess. They are likely going to be missing their starting LT, RG and RT this weekend. They couldn’t run or throw it last weekend vs Miami, and nearly got Palmer killed. Speaking of Palmer – he has sucked this year. Maybe it is because John Brown’s play has been off since being diagnosed with sickle cell. Maybe it is because Michael Floyd has sucked this year. Note Floyd was found passed out drunk behind the wheel at an intersection early Monday morning. Maybe it is because Fitzgerald is about 50 years old. Regardless, Palmer has stats that rival the league’s worst QBs.

New Orleans has sucked too. Brees (not a winner) has tossed 3 picks in two straight with no TD passes. What I noticed most out of them though is they only gave 16 points to a good Bucs team and only 270 yards. That is the sign of a team that is playing hard and still competing.

When I see this game, I see a repeat of the Arizona/Atlanta game. I think Brees will bounce back and have a solid game. I think Carson will toss a couple picks. Gimme the Aint’s and the small spread, as they probably win straight up.

Cincy +3 (20%) vs Pitt

Here you go. This is the game of the week. Every week, Vegas needs a game or they will lose their ass. This game is that game for this week.

Cincy has had a rough season without a doubt. That gives us tremendous value in this game. Cincy is coming off two blowout wins in a row. While they beat inferior opponents, good football is good football. The Glamorous Ginger has been on fire, and gets AJ Green back this week. Arizona State’s Vontaze Burfict is playing as well as any linebacker in the league right now. Cincy has a strong secondary and Carlos Dunlap is having another nice season. This team has talent, and is finally starting to put it together.

Pittsburgh has also been playing great ball as winners of 4 straight. Brown, Bell and Ben are all playing at an extremely high level. So high in fact that it is time to sell…

I also love the revenge spot for Cincy here. Everyone remembers the playoff loss last year. Pitt also beat Cincy in week 1 of this season. Cincy is traditionally an extremely good home team. Add the emotion in and we have a very, very live dog.

Denver +3 (23%) vs NE

It takes huge balls to fade New England twice in less than a week – but I’m doing it.

New England is on a short week. New England is decimated at the skill positions on offense. On top of that, they are coming off an emotional game vs a hated rival. And now they go on the road to a place they have struggled recently…

I hope I don’t lose my spot on the Denver hater bus, because I do like them a lot this week. Denver beat New England last year with Brock Osweiler in one game, and an old man who once was Peyton Manning in another. Both games were in Denver. If they can win with those two scrubs, they can win with Seman.

Why does Denver give New England trouble? Because they understand the only way you can beat New England is by beating the hell out of Brady. Their defense is as good as ever, and you know they will be motivated this week.

The Tennessee game was also very interesting for Denver. They got rattled in the first half, couldn’t stop the run or run it themselves. They completely abandoned that game plan in the 2nd half and threw it every down. There were a couple uncharacteristic drops in the second half, but the passing game was very effective.

Denver is the smart play here even though the public will POUND New England all the way until kickoff. Watch this line very closely. If it sticks on 3 or even drops to 2.5, you will know for sure that we are on the right side.

Cleveland +10 (31%) @ Buffalo

Cleveland is 2-11 this year ATS. As the season progresses, there is extreme value in betting winless teams. The reason for that is most rational bettors stay far away from them and thus Vegas inflates their lines. I have no other solid reason why anyone on earth would want to place a bet on Cleveland. So yeah – when you suck as bad as I do eventually you revert to “their due”.

Buffalo on the other hand is a team on the verge of turmoil. Rex is close to being canned. They are starting a QB who has no business in the NFL (Tyrod Taylor) and the fans what to replace him with another QB who has no business in the NFL (Cardale Jones). Their secondary is decimated by injury and their best player – DT Kyle Williams – is likely out this week.

Cleveland is the play here. Sharps have been destroyed on the Brownies this year, but this week will be different.

There it is. Five solid selections. They probably won’t pan out, but we are on the right side of each game. Who knows, if we have a nice week, maybe I’ll dust of the shark fin for old time’s sake…

PS – Bowl season is right around the corner, and I will send out my Bowl Plays email later this week or this weekend…

final2

BUY HERE

 

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.

To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 15 Fishy Five Picks 2016

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 15 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

From December 7:

The Fishy Five went 1-4 last week.  We are 29-37-4 on the year for 43.9%.  As such, we have decided to make a change around here.  See above for a message from the boss…

Here are the picks for the week:

Oakland +3.5 @ KC

You can get Oakland +3 at +110 or +3.5 at -115. And when you are on a cold streak, you take the hook.

KC is a fraud. An absolute f’n fraud, and I’m not a bit happy about it. The Atlanta game is a perfect example. Their last 16 points of that game were scored on special teams and on defense. That is the type of fluky shit that will drive a bettor insane.

Fact of the matter is KC can’t score. They have been outgained in yards in each of their last five games. If you only account for points scored by the offense – they have averaged 15 points in their last five games.

Also their defense is overrated. It is 21st in yards per play. It is 11th in scoring defense.

KC has made their living off of turnovers. And turnovers are fluky occurrences in the magnitude of how they impact the game. Counting on having your defense score points or create easy scoring opportunities every week just isn’t realistic.

This is KC’s 3rd game in 10 days. The last two were emotional games vs high level opponents (Denver and Atlanta). This is the game they come back to earth.

Just as important as that is the motivation factor for Oakland this week. This is a revenge game after losing to KC earlier in the season. Note that game was after a KC bye, and everyone knows Fat Andy doesn’t lose after a bye.

Bigger than that though is this is Oakland’s biggest game in YEARS. This is their chance to prove to everyone on national television that they are the real deal. This isn’t even KC’s biggest game in the last 10 days (that would be the 5-quarter Denver game on national TV).

Oakland will want it more, has a great passing game and stud OL. They have been great all year in the 2nd half, and especially in the 4th quarter. Worst case here we are getting points in a low scoring game. Best case is Oakland wins straight up.

Seattle -2.5 @ GB

I have been very critical of Seattle this year. They have significant OL problems. They also have Earl Thomas out – a very big blow. Sure they beat the hell out of Carolina last week, but they got thumped by Tampa Bay the week before.

That tells me a lot about their team. They can get up for the big games – like beating Carolina and New England. But they sleep walk through the crap teams – like Tampa and New Orleans.

Green Bay, despite their massive, hairy warts, is still seen as an elite team. As such, they will get a focused Seattle team and Seattle’s best effort.

And you know how much I hate this Green Bay team. Everyone thinks they are back because they feasted on a shit Eagles team and an even shittier Houston team. Even then they struggled with both.

They are completely one-dimensional on offense – not a good recipe vs Seattle. They also have average talent at the skill positions in the passing game. They are still injury riddled on the OL and in their back 7. It just isn’t a good matchup for them.

I love that are getting a good number here. Seattle is starting their late-season push like they do every year, and this may be the last week we get them at a great number.

Jax +3.5 vs Minnesota

Holy crapballs. No wonder I am a zillion games under 500. I am actually going to put my hard-earned money on Jacksonville for the 2nd straight week by fading the only team that has won a game for me since Halloween. I deserve to lose this bet, but I don’t care.

Here is a little stat for you. Jacksonville has the #4 defense in the NFL. As such, they kept games close and were within one score of their opponent in each game of November. That streak was broken last week in their loss to Denver.

That Denver game is misleading though. Bortles did what Bortles does and threw a pick six. Jacksonville also had two painful, bogus late hit penalties that gifted Denver 10 points. They also didn’t get a PI call on Robinson late in the 4th on 4th and 4 which would have led to points. Jacksonville was very competitive last week, but didn’t get the breaks.

Everyone saw that Minnesota played Dallas tough. You cannot knock the inspired D they played. They are tough as nails and that is a fun team to watch – AT HOME. On the road they have lost their last 4 – to the Lions, Skins, Bears and Eagles. They are only 2-4 ATS on the road.

They also could not move the ball at all vs Dallas. Their only drive of the game was the last one. And don’t forget that Dallas has an injury riddled defense. This one spells let-down city as their season is already lost.

Finally, I love that only 20% of the public has the balls to be on Jacksonville. Vegas is going to need Jacksonville to show up. I think they do in a lowwwwwwwwww scoring game. Take the puntos, as Jacksonville will lose 3-2.

Tennessee -1 vs Denver

Now this one is interesting, besides me fading Denver for the hundredth time this season.

Like KC, this is Denver’s 3rd game in 10 days. However, this is Denver’s 2nd roadie in a row, and like I stated above they didn’t exactly impress in Jacksonville.

Here is another little stat that may surprise you – Denver has a shitty run defense. They are ranked #28 in the NFL in run defense.

And yet another little stat that may surprise you – Tennessee can run the damn ball. They are ranked #3 in the NFL in rushing yards per game.

I think Tennessee is a very underrated team. They will be rested and coming off a bye. They will be supremely motivated to give Denver their best shot.

Denver has a huge concern at QB. If Semen can’t play, then they are in big trouble. If he can play, you have to wonder about how the injury will affect his play. He was in a walking boot for a week.

Gimme Tennessee in this one…

Baltimore +7 @ NE

Gulp. Fading New England on a Monday night? Is that really a good decision? Probably not, but this season has been filled with bad decisions so what the hell.

Here is what I know about New England – they slept walked through November. They aren’t the dominant team they were in October. Part of that was feasting on a weak schedule and taking it easy because they could. No shame in that.

But they have lost the 2nd most important member of their team in Gronk. They still have a very young offensive line. And now they face a team that has been their nemesis over the years.

That Baltimore team is #1 in the NFL in defense. Their secondary is playing outstanding football, a key ingredient when facing Brady. After destroying Miami last weekend, it looks like their offense may be finding its groove as well.

I love that the sharps are pounding Baltimore. They have bet the line down from 9 to 7. I gobbled some +9 and will take some more at +7. A touchdown will just be too many points in what will be a very emotional game.

‘There you have it. Hopefully it isn’t another turd sandwich. Who knows though…

final2

BUY HERE

 

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.

To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

Week 14 Fishy Five Picks 2016

week-14-fishy-five

Below are my Fishy Five picks for Week 13 of the football season. My picks are emailed every Wednesday, then posted on the site after the games are played.

If you want my picks for free before they are played, click below to get added to the list.

CLICK HERE TO GET ADDED TO THE EMAIL LIST

From November 30:

The Fishy Five went 2-3 last week. We finally broke a horrendous stretch that saw us lose 11 in a row over the last three weeks. I don’t even know how that is freaking possible. Going to be hard to dig out of that hole, but we are going to try. We are 28-33-4 on the year for 45.9%. Absolutely, embarrassingly craptastic.

One thing that makes sports betting so difficult is that we can have a team pegged perfectly, but just be too early with our bet. The same holds true for life.

This happened to me back in early 2007. By dumb luck, I stumbled onto Steve Jobs’ iphone launch event. I am not a big tech guy at all, but I watched Jobs’ presentation and immediately understood how this product was going to change the world. I was going to make a shit-ton of money because I could see the future…

So I put my life savings into deep out-of-the-money calls on Apple stock. For those of you who aren’t stock market junkies – that is essentially a very leveraged and risky bet that allows you to control a lot of stock for a minimal investment.

On top of that, I even wrote a position paper and gave it to all my friends explaining how the iphone was going to change the world. I wanted my friends to get rich with me, because that is the type of guy I am…

Sure enough, Apple took off rising from $75 bucks (where I bought) to $175 in a little over a year. I made a shit-ton of money. An absolute shit-ton.

And then the 2008 crash happened, and I lost every cent as Apple crashed with the rest of the market.
However, the story didn’t change. The iphone was still going to change the world, and was going to make Apple a ton of money. I had a second chance to ride the wave up. And this time, I was even more confident as I owned the product and realized my predictions would come true. As you probably know, Apple stock has risen 1000% since that 2008 bottom.

But I was shell-shocked from my initial loss, and I didn’t take advantage of the second wave up. I should have retired on that investment. Instead, I am left peddling a book and t-shirts (which make great holiday gifts by the way) and sharing terrible football picks. FML…

Anyway, the exact same thing happens during the football season. Sometimes you see things others don’t see, but act upon it too early. If the story doesn’t change, don’t be afraid to stick to your guns.

That will be the theme this week…

Quick side note – we are pretty close to the third wave of the tech revolution. The first was with the internet, and the second was with the smart phone. The third will be virtual reality. Don’t get fixated on those goofy glasses where people watch roller coaster videos and look like goobers. It is much bigger than that.

This technology will change the way we do everything. The latest issue of Forbes has a great article on it. Be on the lookout for a company that figures out how to monetize this technology. That is a stock you are going to want to own…

final2

BUY HERE

Here are our Week 14 Fishy Five Picks:

Minnesota +3.5 vs Dallas

Fading Dallas has killed me this year. I have lost on them 4 times, including 3 of the last 4 weeks.

The story hasn’t changed though. Rookie QBs don’t win every game in the NFL. Especially on the road vs a top notch defense. It just doesn’t happen.

Let’s look back at Dallas/Washington last week. Dallas gave up 450 yards passing. Washington moved the ball at will, but kept kicking FGs (and missing them). Washington outplayed Dallas.

The game exposed how weak the injured Dallas secondary is. That will really help Minnesota, as their passing game is a PERCEIVED weakness.

Everyone knows that since Norv Turner quit Minnesota has gone very conservative passing the ball. And everyone saw the DREADFUL, fluke interception that Sam Bradford threw at the end of the Detroit game on Thanksgiving.

What everyone forgets is he was 31-37 passing in the game. He has an injury riddled OL and the only way they can play without getting him killed is to dink and dunk it. They also have no run game what-so-ever. That dink and dunk strategy almost worked, as it shortened the game and gave Minnesota the ball with a tie game late in the 4th. Without that pick they probably go down and score, and then everyone is lauding Minnesota for the great coaching job they did.

This strategy has been solid since getting rid of Norv, as they beat Arizona and played toe-to-toe with Washington. This week they get their #1 receiver back in Stephon Diggs. That will definitely help open things up.

Minnesota 4-1 at home ATS and SU. They have a stellar front 7 that can keep Dallas’ running game in check. They have a stud corner to harass Dez. Dallas will be coming off a big rivalry game, and Minnesota will be looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking loss. Take the home team here. Join the 27% of us with huge stones. They will win straight up.

SF +2.5 vs Chicago

Sometimes the story stays the same, sometimes the story gets worse. Chicago is an injury-riddled mess, and they lost MLB Danny Trevathan in the Tennessee game. To recap, Chicago is missing 3 starting OL, both starting WRs, their top 2 QBs and their top TE on offense. On defense they are now missing most of their back 7.

People will think that they were very competitive vs Tennessee, but that was due to Tennessee getting too complacent down the stretch. Tennessee was up 27-7 to start the 4th before they went into a prevent defense. Chicago’s comeback gives us a second shot to reload, as many don’t realize that they are still the crappy team we thought they were.

San Francisco has been more competitive lately as well. They gave a surging Miami team all they could handle, and Kapperdick threw for 300 and ran for 100.

The week before that they played NE tough for three quarters before eventually losing. The week before that they took Arizona to overtime. San Fran has not been playing bad ball the past few weeks.

Also, don’t forget who drafted Matt Barkley when all others shunned him – Chip Kelly. The Chipper will have more respect for Barkley than any human alive, and probably knows him better as well.

What you have here are two dogshit teams. One looking to pack the season in, one trying to build something for their new coach. Look for SF to win this one straight up.

Houston +6.5 @ GB

We faded GB for good reason last week, and it just didn’t turn out. The story hasn’t changed though, so we are going to fade them again.

I painfully understand that GB looked good dominating Philly on Monday night. Let’s look at the game a little closer though. Philly lost their starting RG hours before the game. They also deactivated their #2 receiver hours before the game. They cut their #3 receiver a month ago. On top of that, they lost their #1 receiver to a foot injury on the second possession. So Philly was playing without their top three WRs, 3 OLs and their starting RB. This was like Chicago-lite.

On top of that, Philly shot themselves in the foot over and over. They had a huge gain on a screen called back by a blocking too early penalty. That took points off the board. They were going to get the ball back down one score late in the 4th until a critical off-sides penalty. That was like a turnover. They actually did throw a pick deep in GB territory on an awful overthrow. They just couldn’t get out of their own way.

GB was the beneficiary of Philly’s ineptitude, but that doesn’t change who they are. They are still an injury-riddled team on the OL and at RB. Their D is still atrocious as they gave up 30+ per game the previous 4 before playing Philly. On top of that, Clay Matthews got banged up Monday night – another dent in a porous back 7.

While everyone loves to shit on Houston and Brock Osweiler, they are #1 in their division at 6-5. They are coming off back-to-back, one TD losses vs San Diego and Oakland, but both of those teams are decent. This gives us a great buy-low spot.

Houston’s weakness on offense is in the passing game – which is the weakness of GB’s defense. With Houston’s stud WRs, they should have a breakout performance in this game.

Houston also has a very good defense, and you know they aren’t going to let a dink and dunk game plan beat them like GB used to beat Philly. Even if GB is successful with that game plan, it will turn into a low scoring game. If that happens I love that we are getting six points.

This one will be close and ugly. Love that we are fading a team off a big win on a short week. Love that we are getting points. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Houston wins straight up.

Jacksonville +5 vs Denver

My name is Pat Hagerty, and I was hating on Denver before it was cool to hate on Denver. Fading Denver has cost us 3 losses this year. The story hasn’t changed though – they are overrated.

Sure, they started out 4-0, but that strong start was really a mirage. They beat Carolina who sucks, Indy who blows, Cincy who stinks and the Bucs who are the Bucs. They built a strong start on the backs of cream puffs.

Since then they have gone 3-3. That is a truer representation of who they are.

None of that matters though. What matters is the situational play in this game.

First, this line stinks to high heavens. Why on God’s green earth is this line not 8? Every spongebob squarepants bettor is on Denver at -5, but Vegas could have taken it up to 7 and JoePub would have still hammered it. Only 23% of the public is on Jacksonville. It seems that Vegas is gobbling up Denver money like Drew Brees at a sausage party. Very fishy…

Second, it is a terrible scheduling spot for Denver. They played a VERY physical, prime time game vs a division rival last week. On top of that, the game went an entire extra quarter due to OT. Teams that play almost a full OT and then travel that week nearly always crap the bed – see week 9 with Seattle and Arizona for recent examples…

Finally, Jacksonville has been playing better ball. Sure, they suck balls, but they have been competitive vs Buffalo, Detroit, Houston and KC the previous four weeks. All four of those teams are likely playoff teams. They were within one score in each of those games, and no reason they can’t be under one score vs an overrated and tired Denver team.

You know Jax will be pumped up playing the world champs at home. Gimme cinco puntos because it is the right play – regardless of how terrifying it is…

Atlanta -3.5 vs KC

Sometimes you are right (ATL last week), and the story doesn’t change so DAMMIT don’t change your strategy! That is called learning my friends.

Remember what I said about Denver and the OT game about 30 seconds ago? Same thing applies to KC. They went five quarters as well, and now have to travel into a very hostile environment in Atlanta.

Let’s dig deeper into KC though, because it is important. They were dominated by Denver Monday night. The yardage was 464-273, and you know I’m not a fan of Denver. KC only had 145 yards of total offense until their final TD drive in regulation. If Kubiak doesn’t go full retard by attempting an 87 yard FG, they end up with a tie and everyone isn’t as high on them today.

But that isn’t the only time they lucked out. That was the third time they were trailing by 8 or more in the 4th and won. Recall they stripped a Carolina receiver when Carolina went full Denver with 20 seconds to go to give away the game. The Chargers chocked away a huge lead to KC as well.

Those things in life tend to even out.

Let’s look a KC’s last 4 games. They lucked out winning by 3 vs an overrated Denver team. The week before that they LOST to Tampa Freaking Bay. The week before that they lucked out vs Carolina.
The week before that they struggled vs Jackson freaking Ville and barely won.

KC is well coached, but they just aren’t that good. They are very vanilla on offense, missing their best two skill players in Jeremy Maclin and Jamaal Charles. They also have key injuries on the defensive line with DT Dontario Poe and Dee Ford out.

This is a terrible matchup for KC vs Atlanta who gets to stay at home after a bye week and then a blowout win vs Arizona.

Atlanta is playing at a very high level on offense, especially at home. They will score a lot of points. KC simply doesn’t have the fire power to keep up. Don’t forget too that Atlanta blew out Arizona with Julio Jones having a very subpar game. He will bounce back and have a huge game this weekend.

It’s a terrible matchup and a terrible situational spot for KC. Take Atlanta in a shootout.

Really like this card. I don’t think it will go 5-0 as we are relying on some shitty teams to show up. I do think it will give us a 3-2 or a 4-1 week. We will happily take that. Good luck and thanks for sticking around. It is always darkest before dawn…

To see which games I considered but passed on – visit FISHY FIVE FACEBOOK.

To buy a shirt and support the site – go HERE.

A couple notes:

1 – Please share this with your friends to help me grow the site.
2 – Sign up to get added to the mailing list.
3 – Buy my book on Amazon. It is ranked as the #1 Sports Gambling Book on Amazon and is a great read.
4 – Don’t be a damn fool and follow my plays or anyone else’s plays blindly. Use this as information to help you when doing your own research.
5 – Please email me letting me know if I have lost my damn mind on any of these games. If you have some solid insight – let me know.
6 – These lines are from 5dimes on Monday night.
7 – Follow me on Twitter @fishy_five.I will post when I make an in-game play. Also, follow me on Facebook at @fishyfive.

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